NFC East: 1. Philadelphia 12-4 Team to beat in NFC. 2. Dallas 9-7 By default they'll get 9 wins. PS: Romo is good. Not great, but very good. 3. Washington 7-9 Sounds right. 4. NYG 7-9 Bounce-down year.
NFC North: 1. Chicago 11-5 The second best team in the NFC. Benson is key. If he doesn't produce, Rex is in trouble. 2. Detroit 9-7 Calvin Johnson = Kitna looks good. But really a last place schedule + weak division = 9. 3. Minnesota 7-9 Two easy victories over the Packers + 5-9 against rest of league = 7-9 season. 4. Green Bay 5-11 Sorry ass team.
NFC South: 1. New Orleans 9-7 Feel good story gets old quickly. Reggie Bush's TDs do not equal "rebuilt community". 2. Carolina 8-8 By default. Will exceed my expectations - would not be surprised if they won 12. 3. Tampa Bay 6-10 Suck. 4. Atlanta 5-11 Really suck.
NFC West: 1. St. Louis 11-5 Bulger + Steven Jackson + decent defense = 11 wins. Will compete with Bears for bye. 2. Seattle 9-7 Will do okay, but health is key. If Shaun Alexander is healthy... 12 wins is possible. 3. Arizona 7-9 Okay. 4. San Fran 6-10 Slightly worse than okay.
AFC East: 1. New England 10-6 Good team, but will suffer at beginning due to suspension 2. NY Jets 9-7 Good team, but tougher schedule this year. Mangini will have to earn "genius" this year. 3. Buffalo 7-9 Improving team - better O-line makes me think they might be tough - but need more skill. 4. Miami 6-10 Still the suck.
AFC North: 1. Baltimore 12-4 The team to beat in the AFC. 2. Cincinnati 8-8 Fallen on hard times. 3. Pittsburgh 7-9 Rookie coach make big difference. 4. Cleveland 6-10 Rookie quarterback goes through growing pains.
AFC South: 1. Indianapolis 11-5 The competition - Ravens, Pats - is catching up. Window of dominance is closing. 2. Tennessee 8-8 Vince Young wins games! 3. Jacksonville 8-8 Could do better, but I'm not betting on it. 4. Houston 6-10 Matt Schaub will be good, but they need an O-line first.
AFC West: 1. San Diego 10-6 Great team, bad coach. 2. Denver 9-7 Same old Broncos. Actually, I think 6-10 is likely, but the Broncos alway win 9-10 games. 3. Kansas City 6-10 I've got nothing - Bill Simmons says they'll suck. I agree, I guess. 4. Oakland 5-11 They still suck + Rookie QB - really bad coach + semi-okay coach = 5 wins.
Other predictions, for Week #1: Best Bets: 1. St.Louis [-1] vs. Carolina. 2. Philly [-3] at Green Bay. 3. Minnesota [-3] vs. Atlanta. 4. Detroit [+2] at Oakland.
Solid Bets: 1. Tennessee [+6.5] at Jacksonville 2. Buffalo [+3] vs. Denver. 3. NYJ [+6.5] vs. New England. 4. Baltimore [+2.5] at Cincy.
The NFL season has officially snuck up on me. The day job's been killing me, baseball season is in full swing, and I have a baby on the way. I'm going to spend the next three days doing my best cramming for the NFL season, and I plan to be up to speed for the Eagles opener on Sunday (The video above sure helps). Tonight, I'll take a broad view of the upcoming season. At the bottom of this post you'll find my full predictions, it should be obvious who I'm picking to win it all.
I won't waste your time with long-winded explanations for all of my picks, instead, I'll concentrate on what I know, and that's the NFC East.
The Eagles are going to win this division in a walk. There's only one thing that can sidetrack this team from dominating the East, and that's an injury to one player. I know who you're thinking, but it's not Donovan McNabb, it's Brian Westbrook. Losing McNabb would hurt, but the team could go on and win in this division. Without Westbrook, this team is in serious trouble. In a nutshell, with a healthy McNabb and Westbrook, the defense does enough (ergo, the secondary causes enough turnovers), to win 13 games. Don't kid yourselves, there are no challengers in the East.
Dallas is a complete joke. As the Iggles Blog put so eloquently, Tony Romo is garbage. Their malignant wide receiver is now ruling the roost, and they have possibly the worst head coach in the league at the helm. (If you don't believe me, ask anyone who placed a bet on the Bills while Phillips was coaching there). This team is all hype, and they won't make the playoffs.
The Giants are led by a gutless wonder living off his nepotism-fueled endorsement deals. Their best player will be in the broadcast booth or elsewhere whoring himself out for the highest dollar. Strahan is officially over the hill, and came to camp late, which is always a good combo. This team has none of the components needed to be a playoff team, oh and they hate their coach too.
The Skins are the most intriguing team in the East, and I have them finishing third. Their QB is garbage, and Gibbs is still living in the 80's with his play calling, but their defense should be stout, especially at the safety position. I think they're a year (and a QB) away from playoff contention.
In case I haven't made it obviously, I tend to gamble every once in a while. Nothing major, nothing that I can't afford. So far I've been pretty lucky, in that I'm sure I've come out ahead more often than not.
Even if you are not a gambler, it is worth seeing what the action is telling us. Aggregate knowledge. It's the concept behind futures markets; it's why the US government wanted to create a marketplace that allows for speculation on possible terrorist activities, because that's a surprisingly accurate way of drawing out the information. Bottom line, people with insider information, or just strong knowledge about a specific event, would be likely to bet on such an event occurring; it would become noticeable in the aggregate effect on futures. The best example I can think of? Every year a casino or sportsbook would allow betting on the hot reality TV show of the season... for example, who would win this year's The Apprentice (back when that was hot, of course)? They allow betting, and, without fail, they have to shut it down almost immediately because of "unusually heavy action" on one player - it then becomes pretty clear that player must have made it pretty far, if not won the whole thing outright. Keep in mind that reality shows are often pretaped, and have lots of editors, cameramen, and other insiders with knowledge of the outcomes, so the heavy betting could be coming from lots of sources.
Okay, with that in mind, let's look at the NFL action for the upcoming season. I took a look at the over/under for "wins" this season, and the action and lines for each team.
-Only 8 teams, or 25% of the NFL, are giving more money if you bet the over than the under. The significance of this is that this means betters are optimistic about 75% of the teams in the league, and that they will exceed their over/under number of wins. The Hopeless 8?
1. Chicago Bears - o/u = 10 wins. If you take the over, you get even money. The under pays -120. This is pretty much a sign that the Bears, according to the aggregate thinking, are a solid pick to win 10 games - no more, maybe slightly less. Action is pretty even, maybe slightly down. Keep in mind that the Bears a big market team; big market teams tend to have more optimistic betting, since their fans tend to support them. See "betting on England in the World Cup" every four years (their odds are often much lower than they realistically should be, because British bettors are going to bet on England no matter what).
So what does this mean? It means a lot of people are down on the Bears this season. Personally, I still think they are the best team in the NFC, although the Eagles and a surprise team (like the Rams) might give them a run. Oh, and watch out for the Cowboys, Saints and Seahawks, right?
2. Green Bay - o/u = 7.5 wins. Yeah, you would have to pay me +135 to even consider taking the Packers to win more 8 or more games. Seriously, why is the o/u so high? Shouldn't it be 6.5?
3. Kansas City - o/u = 7.5 (+130 for over). Oddly, I think KC is a significantly better team than GB. Yet I wouldn't bet on them winning 8 games, either.
4. Miami - o/u = 7 (+120). More like the Chicago scenario - just a very well placed Vegas line. We're going to avoid any lines that are this close.
5. NY Giants - o/u = 8 (+150). No one seems to believe the Giants will be mediocre this season. That's what losing Tiki Barber, possibly Michael Strahan, and just in general not looking like a good team will do for you. I would bet on the Giants going under, too. Especially if the Cowboys, Eagles and possibly Redskins are all improved or better.
6. NY Jets - o/u = 8 (even, -130 for the under). Money is on the under. A lot of people feel the Jets will take a step back this season. We would so milk this bet, and take the over, if not for our distrust of the offensive line. The Jets improved with the draft - all four players taken in the draft will play, and by the end of the season they will be major contributors. The Jets improved via trades, too - Thomas Jones may be slightly injured, but he's a big upgrade at RB. The offensively line might be unstable, and that might lead to a Chad Pennington injury, but Kelly Clemens seems like a solid backup (perhaps even an upgrade long term).
This team is winning not because of offense, anyway - they are winning because they have an opportunistic defense, and superior special teams. We will consider dropping a bet here, too.
7. Pittsburgh - o/u = 9. They have fallen off since the Super Bowl, huh? The line (even, -120 on under) seems to be indicative that the Steelers' line is dead on. We agree - we see the Steelers win 10 games at most if everything goes right, and no less than 7 or 8 games.
8. Tennessee - o/u = 7 (+140 for over). We would have taken the over for sure if not for Pac-Man Jones legal trouble and suspension (8 games). Say what you want about the man - he's not a star, but he and Vince Young teamed up to make the Titans the best team in the NFL during last November/December. They both played their part (remember Pac-Man Jones against the Giants last season). We still think Vince Young just wins games. But is 8 wins asking too much?
Now let's look at some of the other teams:
9. New England has the highest o/u at 11.5 games. Even with that number, they are still getting lots of action on the over, which is currently paying -145. So what do we make of NE's chances of topping 11.5 wins? Well, if the AFC East sucks like it has for the past few years, sure. But if the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are improved, that might be a tough number to reach. We won't bet on 12, and are too afraid of what Brady can do with those wideouts to bet against it, too.
10. Speaking of the AFC East - the Bill o/u is only 6, and the "over" pays -105 (pretty solid payout). In other words, this team is not expected to do well at all. We think that the loss of Willie McGahee is a factor in their low ranking; however, the Bills have done a great job of getting their o-line fixed for once, and we think they can make some noise in the AFC. Not a playoff team, but definitely capable of topping 6 wins. In fact, at -105, it's worth a bet.
Some other really high win numbers:
11, 12. Indianapolis and San Diego have o/u of 10.5 wins. That's tied for second behind the Patriots. Our take - Indy always wins 11 games, but they may take it easy this year with the Super Bowl win behind them. The Chargers would have been the best bet, but Norv Turner is now their coach. Avoid both teams in terms of bets.
Some ridiculous heavy betting action:
13. Arizona's o/u is 7, but they pay -190 for the over. Evidently the aggregate thinking is that "this is the season the Cards finally become good". Matt Leinart time? Me thinks the people have spoken, and while we won't bet on the Cards, we won't bet against them either. And we'll pen them down for a magical 8-8, or even 9-7 season.
14. Similarly, Detroit o/u is 6.5, but they are only paying -180 for betting on the over. Now I don't care about the Cards bandwagon, but let me jump on the Jon Kitna Lions bandwagon - yes, they can hit 7 wins this season. Calvin Johnson has made me a believer.
15. Similarly, San Francisco has an o/u of 7.5, and -190 to bet the over. We thought 7.5 was surprisingly high - like the Packers, shouldn't they be have an o/u of 6.5? Well, the bettors have spoken - and they are almost positively giddy about SF winning at least 8 games this year. Me? Pass.
16. St. Louis has an o/u of 7.5, and a -190 payout on the over. Is that the generic line for the NFC West or something? Apparently everyone thinks the Rams, Cards, and 49ers are going to improve big time. If so, how about Seattle?
17. The Seahawks have an o/u of 9, with a modest -130 payout for over. If I understand Vegas correctly, anyone can win the NFC West. Avoid the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cards. I might roll the dice with the Rams, though. They could win 8 games. But paying -190 for it? Not worth the money.
18. Oakland has the lowest o/u with 5. Considering they have upgraded their Head Coach and QB, they should be better. On the other hand, their QB is still a rookie, and sat out most of the preseason. He might be Alex Smith, rookie year, all over again. I would still take the over, though. No team sucks for too long in the NFL.
Okay, enough analysis. Our best bets:
1. Buffalo, over 6 wins, paying -105. We see them finishing 7-9, which would cut it really close. On the other hand, -105 is the best odds you can get. 2. Baltimore, over 9.5, paying -140. We see them finishing 12-4. 3. Tennessee, over 7 wins, paying +140. We see them finishing 7-9, but 9-7 is also just as possible. It's worth +140 to roll with the Titans getting lucky one game or two. Vince Young! 4. Oakland to top 5 wins this season at -150. Other predictions:
1. Detroit will top 6.5 wins. It's just not worth -180 to bet on that. If we could get better odds, we would bet on the over. 2. NY Giants will not win 8 games. It's not worth it, though, because everyone else is apparently on the "Giants will suck" bandwagon. 3. St. Louis will top 7.5 wins, but like Detroit, it's not worth -190 to bet on that. 4. The Jets will top 8 wins this season. But I'm reluctant to bet on them, since I might be a little biased. 5. Green Bay under 7.5 wins. Not worth -170 to bet on it, but still seems unlikely that they will go 8-8 or better. Actually, this might be worth a bet.
[full story]
It's that time of year again. The nights are getting cooler, the leaves will soon begin their change and Sundays will be spent in front of the TV for nine hours watching football. Yep, autumn will be here before you know it and that means the NFL is about to kickoff another season. It's also time for me to use my all-seeing eye and predict the outcome of the 2007 season. So put away those preview magazines and take heed -- for only I know which team will come out of the AFC alive.
East
1. New England Patriots (11-5)
2. *Jets (10-6)
3. Buffalo Bills (6-10)
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
*Wild Card
I was really tempted to have the Jets take the division, but I would be really showing my colors with a pick like that. The Patriots are everyone's darling not just in the AFC East, but in the entire AFC. And on paper I really can't blame them. The Pats picked up WR Randy Moss and LB Adalius Thomas (among others) and that should make them better on both sides of the ball. But if history in the NFL has taught us anything (and it hasn't) it's that an offseason of big name acquisitions doesn't always guarantee victory (just look at the Washington Redskins). The Patriots will be good, but they won't be as good as people think. As for the Jets, I have questions about their offensive line and their ability to stop the run, but in Mangini I trust. RB Thomas Jones (if healthy and Zeus-willing he will be) will give the Jets a legit running attack and should open up the passing game. First-round pick CB Darrelle Revis should really improve the secondary and the Jets may have the best special teams in the AFC. A second straight playoff appearance will have me feelin fine. I just hope I'm not jinxing my boys in green. The Bills lost their starting running back (Willis McGahee), their starting middle linebacker (London Fletcher-Baker) and their starting corner (Nate Clements) so I don't expect much from them in 2007. I pray for nothing but darkness in Miami.
North
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)
4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
This may be the most competitive division in the NFL. The top three teams could be fighting for first-place the entire season. I'll give the nod to Baltimore because of their defense. Their D is still in the Top 3, even with the loss of LB Adalius Thomas and the decline of LB Ray Lewis. RB Willis McGahee should improve their running game (even though he only seems to have big games against the Jets) and QB Steve McNair will do just enough to give Baltimore their second straight division crown. Bill Cowher is gone in Pittsburgh and the Mike Tomlin era will begin. QB Ben Roethlisberger had a terrible 2006 (off-season motorcycle accident, concussions during the season, 18 TDs vs. 23 INTs), but should rebound. If he doesn't, it could be a long season for the black and gold. The Bengals may be the sexy pick in the AFC because of their explosive offense, but this isn't the Arena League and their defense is pitiful. They also seem to lean toward self-destruction. The only storyline in Cleveland will be "when does Brady Quinn take over as the starting QB?"
South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
2. *Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
4. Houston Texans (4-12)
*Wild Card
The Colts' defense was terrible during the 2006 campaign, but they turned it around in the playoffs and capped it off with a Super Bowl victory. The 2,000 pound gorilla is off QB Peyton Manning's back and he'll continue to put up Hall of Fame type numbers. Their defense is still rotten and they lost two of their best players (LB Cato June and CB Nick Harper), but they still have DE Dwight Freeney and FS Bob Sanders. I was tempted to pick the Jags at the top spot, but they're too schizophrenic for me. Their defense may rival Baltimore's in the AFC, but they don't play well on the road. David Garrard will take over at QB, but RB Maurice Jones-Drew is the key to that offense. QB Vince Young had a great second half in 2006, but I think he takes a step back in 2007. Jeff Fisher is a good coach so the Pacman Jones saga shouldn't affect the team, but he won't be able to coach them to more than six wins in 2007. The Texans have a new QB (Matt Schaub) and a new RB (Ahman Green), but it won't make much of a difference.
West
1. San Diego Chargers (12-4)
2. Denver Broncos (8-8)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
4. Oakland Raiders (3-13)
The Chargers head into the new season with an entirely new coaching staff (Norv Turner takes over for Marty Schottenheimer as head coach, Clarence Shelmon comes in for Cam Cameron on offense and former Jet defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell replaces Wade Phillips on D), but they inherit a stacked roster. RB LaDainian Tomlinson will put together another MVP season (since he avoided the Madden jinx and declined to be on the cover) and LB Shawne Merriman heads up a very formidable defense. Denver's Jay Cutler may have a rocket for an arm, but I'm not ready to anoint him as the next great QB just yet. The Broncos running attack will feature a new number 1 in Travis Henry and the team picked up WR Brandon Stockley and TE Daniel Graham in the offseason, but I don't think it will be enough. The Chiefs would have the worst offense in the league if it weren't for RB Larry Johnson. Head coach Herm Edwards is conservative by nature, but if the Chiefs win this year, he'll have to give the ball to Johnson 600 times this season. Oakland will be terrible again, but they still have the coolest unis in the league.
When the smoke clears the San Diego Chargers will make it out alive and represent the AFC in Arizona. I'm not sold on Norv Turner as the head coach, but I think the team has too much talent to get booted out of the playoffs for the second straight season. Still, you could make a case for four or five teams to make it out of the AFC in 2007. And injuries are always a factor between winning and losing in the NFL. I'm hoping I'm dead wrong and the Jets rub some dirt in my face and make it to the big dance.
If you remember back after the All-Star game, SML made some predictions on how the NBA season would turn out. Here is our analysis of how we did:
Eastern ConferencePredicted Record (Actual Record) Games Off:
Toronto 45-37 (47-35) +2
New Jersey 38-44 (41-41) +3
New York 38-44 (33-49) -5
Philadelphia 27-55 (35-47) +8
Boston 24-58 (24-58) Perfect
Detroit 51-31 (53-29) +2
Cleveland 45-37 (50-32) +5
Chicago 44-38 (49-33) +5
Indiana 41-41 (35-47) -6
Milwaukee
30-52 (28-54) -2
Miami 44-38 (44-38) Perfect
Washington 44-38 (41-41) -3
Orlando 41-41 (40-42) -1
Atlanta 34-48 (30-52) -4
Charlotte 30-52 (33-49) +3
We expected Miami to go 18-12 down the stretch, and they did. We thought Atlanta would do better down the stretch, but no such luck. Cleveland we thought would turn on the cruise control; however, with the Bulls on their butts for the 2nd see most of the second half, they had to pick up their game, and they did. We predicted Washington and Indiana would struggle; however, we failed to gauge how much they would struggle, as we we still 9 combined games off on our Washington/Indiana will struggle prediction.
That really emphasizes how bad Indy fell apart - they were 29-24 at the half. They were lock into a playoff spot, and instead went 6-23 down the stretch. Wow.
Western ConferencePredicted Record (Actual Record) Games Off:
We did much better with the Western Conference; with the exceptions of the Spurs and the T-Wolves, we were within a three-game margin of every team. Overall the West did worse than we predicted in the second half, partially because the East got better (the Bulls, Nets, Cavs, 76ers and Heat all had really strong second halves, for example).
We said we expect NOOCH, GS, the Clippers and the Nuggets to have better second halves. We were pretty close on those four (the only slight smudge was that we thought it would be NOOCH, not the Warriors, who would end up with the last playoff spot). We said Seattle would do poorly in the 2nd half, and got 9-20; they did poorly, but went 11-18, so we were slightly off.
Playoff predictions and previews will be coming up in the next couple of days.
The regular season came to an end tonight, and it’s time to take a quick look at my regular season predictions (made at the All Star break) from The Vault.
Here are the predictions, results, and how far off I was.
Sixers: Predicted (27-55). Actual record (35–47) Games off: 8 Celtics: Predicted (23-59). Actual record (24–58) Games off: 1 Nets: Predicted (40-42). Actual record (41–41) Games off: 1 Raptors: Predicted (46-36). Actual record (47–35) Games off: 1 Knicks: Predicted (34-48). Actual record (33–49) Games off: 1 Magic: Predicted (41–41). Actual record (40–42) Games off: 1
Total games off: 13
Ahh, the irony of ironies, it was my own team, the Sixers that threw off my predictions. I’m probably not alone though, no one expected the Sixers to finish the season 18–11.
Since I’m already rooting around in The Vault, may as well get my playoff picks on the record.
East
Detroit over Orlando, in 5. Cleveland over Washington, in 5. Nets over Toronto, in 7. Chicago over Miami, in 6.
Chicago over Detroit, in 7. (C-Web effect) Nets over Cleveland, in 7.
Chicago over Nets, in 6.
Even as I write this I don’t really like these picks, but Miami and Detroit just aren’t what they once were. C-Webb really hurts the Pistons. Age and an ailing Wade really hurt the Heat. The Bulls aren’t the best team in the East, and taking out Miami and Detroit is a tall order, but I think their young legs and Ben Wallace’s interior D take them to the finals. On the other side of the bracket, Toronto relies way too much on the jumper, and this is Vince Carter’s last/best shot to showcase himself for a max contract. Vince/Kidd vs. LeBron/Warm Body will be a great matchup to watch, if it happens.
West
Dallas over Golden State, in 5. (Everyone’s sexy upset is going to be G.S. I don’t see it happening.) Phoenix over Los Angeles, in 6. (Kobe wins two by himself, that’s all) Spurs over Nuggets, in 6. (If the Nuggets played the Suns, I would’ve picked them. But not the Spurs.) Houston over Utah, in 5. (Never bet against Jeff Van Gundy.)
Houston over Dallas, in 7. (Sorry, Dirk) Phoenix over Spurs, in 6.
Houston over Phoenix, in 7. (See above, re Van Gundy)
Finals
Houston over Chicago in 5. (No free rides in the finals, but this won’t even be a contest.)
AL West 1. LA of Anaheim Angels 2. Texas Rangers 3. Seattle Mariners 4. Oakland A's
Let's start with the Angels, and let's preface this by making it clear that we think the Rangers will give the Angels a run for their money. One little injury and we're jumping on the Ranger's bandwagon, okay? Now, the Angels. Hitting? Yes, potential MVP candidate Vlad Guerrero, surrounded by lots of young talent, including future batting champ Howie Kendricks, Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales, and catching prospect Jeff Mathis (if he can get some playing time behind another young catcher, Mike Napoli). But the problem with this team is that the Angels' offense is very dependent on Vlad. One injury, one tweak of that suspect 31-year old back of Vlad, and the Angels chances are gone. For that reason, we are sorely tempted to predict the Rangers on top, because SML senses an injury coming this year for Vlad.
The Angels have a solid pitching staff - the starters are lead by the most unknown ace in the AL, John Lackey (a fantasy stud who is always underrated - this is the year he wins about 17-19 games). Ervin Santana has loads of potential; Jered Weaver showed what his could do in his half-season last year. We've said it before - this Weaver is for real. Bartolo Colon is your fifth starter? That, friends, is a deep rotation. As deep as it gets in the AL. And the bullpen is also filthy, lead by K-Rod. Scott Shields is the best set-up guy in the division right now, maybe even all of baseball.
The Rangers are an interesting team. They have an amazingly talented young infield - 3B Hank Blalock still struggles against lefties, and in the second half, but possess lots of hitting ability; SS Michael Young is one of the top-3 hitting shorts in the AL (along with Jeter and Tejeda); 2B Ian Kinsler is the poor man's Kendrick, a young future .300 hitter; and Mark Texiera, despite a subpar season last year, is one of the biggest sluggers in baseball. He could hit a Ryan Howard-like number of homers this year (we have him pegged at 49, but he might top that). Unfortunately the outfield is suspect - Kenny Lofton is still playing?; B.B. Wilkerson strikes out way too much; I think I remember a Nelson Cruz from junior high. He was a chubby kid. He lost on Where In The World Is Carmen Sandiego. Expect some Sammy Sosa action here.
The starting rotation - not that good, either: Millwood is okay (great if he's going for a contract) and Padilla will do alright. The key is Brandon McCarthy, a giant of a pitcher whom Texas acquired from the Chicago Sox in the offseason. The kid can pitch; if he can harness it together he will jump up to the #1 spot, and all of a sudden the rotation will look decent.
The bullpen is solid. Otsuka was a decent closer last season, but this season will once again serve as a set-up pitcher in front of Eric Gagne (currently injured with a back problem, but will be back April 13th, supposedly). If Gagne is healthy and pitches even 75% as good as he was back in the day (when he was the best reliever in baseball, period), him and Otsuka are as solid a one-two punch in the pen as Shields-Rodriguez. Since there aren't too many teams with a reliable pen, you have to give the Rangers credit - they will win games late, games that teams with less sturdy pens will fumble away. That right there might be enough to keep them in contention.
The Mariners aren't going to be real contenders (they'll hang for a bit, though, especially if no one pulls away as we suspect) but they have some talent. Ichiro is playing for a contract, expect a big season from the former MVP. We like Felix Hernandez this season, expect a big June through September from the King. Jarrod Washburn, Horacio Ramierez, Miguel Batista, and Jeff Weaver are four pitchers that are almost identical in their utter unpredictability. Who knows?
The A's: Mike Piazza is their cleanup hitter. Their starting staff is headed by Rich Harden, who is turning into the AL's Mark Prior. Loiaza is in their rotation at #4. This is a last place team. We like Harden, we think he'll have a good bounce back year, hopefully stay healthy, but this team is not going to do much better than last.
AL Central 1. Minnesota Twins 2. Detroit Tigers 3. Chicago White Sox 4. Cleveland Indians 5. Kansas City Royals
Wow, its the most competitive division in the American League. Aside from penning in KC as a last place team (we like Alex Gordon, Zach Greinke, Octavio Dotel, and Mark Teahan for fantasy baseball purposes), any of the other four teams could win. So let's start with the Indians.
The Indians are the hot pick to win. Remember that come September - everyone was on the Indians bandwagon in April, okay. Yeah, I like Grady Sizemore. Along with Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and maybe even Trot Nixon (can he play a full season for once?), the Indians will score runs. Still, we have our concerns. V-Mart had a slow start last year, and is defensively still weak as a catcher. Nixon is slow in the OF. The pitching staff is headed by Sabathia, who hasn't really improve any since his rookie year six season ago. In fact, he seems to have gotten slightly worse, though he still shows his potential enough to warrant excitement every April. I may regret writing this later, but Cliff Lee, Westbrook , Paul Byrd and Jeremy Sowers just don't impress me. I don't see any of them topping 14 victories. And the bullpen is still a mess, only now, thanks to the addition of Keith Foulke's corpse, its a supercrowded mess. Foulke, Betancourt, Cabrera, and Borowski won't so much compete for saves as rotate blown saves. This is your 2006 Atlanta Braves team right here, minus John Smotlze. See why I'm not excited?
The White Sox. Since their World Series win in 2005 they haven't impressed me with their moves. Thome is getting old, and Konerko is reaching the end of his prime. Jermaine Dye's 2006 season was out of the scope of his ability; he could do it, for sure, but we don't think he can. Or will. Joe Crede finally got it together last season, but despite all that this team couldn't win the division. The head of the staff remains the headcase that is Contreras; we wish him well. Really, we do. But the dude needs to get it together for real. Buerhle's got like 1,000 innings on his arm over the past 4 seasons; he's just an injury waiting to happen. Javier Vasquez is Spain-ish for Jose Contreras. We like Gavin Floyd, former Philly, at the 5-spot. Still, this team isn't good enough in my opinion.
We like the Tigers. They'll be focused this season, looking to make up for last season's blown World Series. The offense will be solid, with Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and Ivan Rodriguez as the heart of the lineup. We like Shef's MVP chances this year - mark him down as a legit darkhorse candidate.
But the starting staff took a hit with the loss of Kenny Rogers. Reality check - even if he was healthy to start the season, last year was just the steroids, yo. Yeah, I'll say, even if it is irresponsible or whatever; Rogers must have been on steroids. Career year at 40? Please. That little red herring in the World Series, with the gunk on his glove - completely staged to throw people of the scent. Just like McGwire and his bottle of Andro that just "showed up" in his locker; a red herring. How'd you get so big, Sammy? "Creatine". Sure, dude. Look at Rogers' head, yo.
Bonderman and Verlander are great young pitchers. We see Bonderman taking another step forward this year; Verlander not so much. Verlander will have some problems this year, maybe injury-related... as noted in a lot of other places, he pitched a lot of innings last season (including the post-season). Todd Jones, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney make the bullpen scary. But we still see the Tigers falling just short to the Twins.
The Twins, mo-fo? You done lost your mind, SML! Nah, baby - here's the deal: Santana. You ain't seen the best of Santana yet. Think about that for a second. What if I'm right? We could be talking 23-25 wins this season. I'm gonna say I think Santana, after his usual so-so April, is gonna be lights out. Boof Bonser, Silva, and the rest of the staff aren't great, but they'll benefit from riding behind Santana.
Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are the Twins' offense; expect more from them this season. And beyond that, the Twins don't have much. But we expect them to overachieve a bit, and win just enough to win the toughest division in the AL.
Awards:
Cy Young: Duh, we just said we think Santana is going to win like 23-25 games? Are we nuts? Perhaps. But you know what - the real question is who else is even going to do well this season, enough to compete with Santana? I've got nothing.
MVP: Santana will get votes, but we still think it'll be A-Rod. He's playing for a new contract, one. Two, it'll be the media (they vote for MVP, right) - the Boston-centric media (particularly ESPN) is gonna to switch from putting down A-Rod this season to supporting him, making for the incredible "A-Rod comeback story". Aside from giving them a new angle to write from, it'll also increase the odds of A-Rod opting out of his contract. Which would increase the odds of him being on a different team next season (perhaps the Red Sox? Nah, but the Cubs or Angels maybe.). Which will lead to more new stories for the media. It's too convenient. We're gonna go with A-Rod as our lock for MVP.
Again, after all our predictions, we will probably regret these picks, but as always: we challenge you to put your picks in the comment boxes. Let's see if you are more accurate than SML.
Note: all the cartoon images in this post came from this website, go check it out.
The New York Mets will not win the wild card in the National
League in 2007. Their pitching is too old at one end—Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez,
and too young at the other end—Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez.
The Mets will finish behind the Phillies and Braves in
the East.
Speaking of the Phillies and Braves, they will play
close to each other for the entire season, even seesawing back in forth in
and out of first place. In late September, the Phillies will sweep through a
successful road trip, then return and sweep the Braves at home, nipping them at
the wire.
The Lou Piniella and Alfonso Soriano led Cubbies will win
the NL Wild Card, edging out a surprising Pittsburgh Pirates team in the final
week of the season.
The Cubs Kerry Wood will rebound from a sore arm to be
effective out of the bullpen and Mark Prior will find his fastball at Triple-A
Iowa, and return to help the club. The team’s $300 million off season shopping
spree added free agent pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis to the rotation,
which includes righthander Carlos Zambrano.
Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild will help closer Ryan
Dempster rebound from a shaky 2006, where he was 24 for 33 in save situations, and
recorded nine losses and an 4.80 ERA. Dempster, however, recorded a season high12
straight save opportunities from July 5 to August 14.
No longer a team dependent on Wood and Prior, the new look
Cubbies will have decent speed at the top of the order in Soriano and Jacque
Jones, followed by effective power in Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and free
agents Cliff Floyd and Mark DeRosa.
With Piniella now calling the shots in the dugout, the
Cubbies can definitely get Wild in the Friendly Confines.
Okay, on to more horrifically bad predictions, this time for the American League. We'll start with the west this time.
AL WEST
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
The Angels will win the division, again. The Athletics will seem like they'll be a playoff team, and then falter, and miss October altogether, thus ensuring that this year they will not lose another first round playoff series. The Rangers and Mariners will continue to make this division really only about the two teams at the top.
AL CENTRAL
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians (wild card)
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
I don't like the White Sox to do anything at all this year, and I'll be glad to see Guillen go away. I think the Twins will do well with Morneau and Mauer, despite the fact that I don't know who pitches for them other than Santana and Nathan.
The Indians are young and fun, and I think this is finally the year they squeak into the Wild Card slot. I like the Tiger pitching staff, but I don't think they're heading back to the World Series this year.
AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Of course I'm going out on a limb here by picking the Yankees to miss the playoffs entirely. But, whatever. Mussina's getting old, Wang's starting on the DL, and Pavano is their best hope. Even with call-ups during the season, I just don't see Jeter being able to put the team on his back yet again. Rodriguez will cry his way through the season, wondering why Jeter doesn't want to have slumber parties anymore, and this time next year A-Rod will be an Angel.
I have faith in the Red Sox pitching staff, even though Wakefield has always and will always make me nervous. Schilling may be old, but he knows his stuff well enough to know what he can and cannot do. Matsuzaka is looking strong in spring training, so I'm hoping for that to continue. And Beckett should be slightly better than he was last season, assuming he can stay healthy. Tavarez had me cursing his name when he pitched in relief for the first two-thirds of last season, but he was a decent starting pitcher. So, we'll see.
Playoffs:Red Sox beat Indians; Angels over the Twins. Close series in the ALCS, but the Red Sox pull it off and my dream of a Dodgers/Red Sox World Series comes true.
Yes, it's wishful thinking. But it will be fun to see if it can happen.
All right no more skirting the issue, it's time to show my ignorance of the happenings in the American League. I pushed it off a day beyond the NL to brush up, but most of what you are about to see is coming from my gut rather than any real factual information.
East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays
Yep, I think Dice-K is gonna make a difference, even with the adjustment period of pitching in MLB and to the best hitters in the world, I think he still wins 18 games and that's enough to bring home the East. All the news has been about this kid, but don't forget about Manny and Papi, a line up with boasting those two bats is going to win games no matter who is on the mound.
One thing I do know about the AL is that you must never, ever count out George and the Bombers. The Yankees are the only team in professional sports that considers a season a failure if they don't win the championship, and a footnote - A-Rod has a monster year and picks up the AL MVP.
The Jays are improved, but not improved enough to get to the head of this division.
Central
1. Tigers
2. Twins
3. White Sox
4. Indians
5. Royals
I don't think the Tigers were a fluke last year. Look at their line-up - Pudge Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Maglio Ordonez and the addition of Gary Sheffield makes for a pretty potent offense, they aren't the best team in the AL but they are good enough to take the Central.
The Twins don't have any super-duper stars on offense, with the exception of Torrii Hunter, but the do have a pretty well rounded squad and will keep the division tight until the bitter end.
West
1. Angels
2. A's
3. Rangers
4. Mariners
The Angel's run away with the West, solid pitching, Garrett Anderson and a big year from Vlad wrap it up very early.
The A's biggest move in the offseason was a step down from last year. '06 DH Frank Thomas, who had a big year was replaced by Mike Piazza, call me crazy but I expect a big fat zero from the one-time Met's backstop.
So, if you read my entry from yesterday, you know it's gonna be the Phil's from the NL - who's it gonna be from the land of the DH - the Yankees. Like I said, never count out George and the bombers, after just squeeking in to the playoffs as the wild-card the bats and arms come to life in the post season. A-Rod not only wins the regular season MVP, but is a beast in the post season as well, winning back the fans and squashing all thoughts of ever putting him on the market.
Yankees beat the Phillies in six, Torre gets his contract renewed and all is well in the world of pinstripes, until '08.
Well if you've gotta lose the World Series to someone, the Yankees would be the obvious choice. As they say, there's no shame in being beaten by the best, and honestly losing to the Yanks wouldn't piss me off nearly as much as losing to Joe Carter and the Jays in '93.
Okay, time for SML's baseball prophecy to be foretolded. We'll start with the NL East:
National League East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 2. Atlanta Braves 3. New York Mets 4. Florida Marlins 5. Washington Nationals
Holy sh*t! How can you pick the Mets to finish 3rd? Well, not really. They'll be in second for most of the season, but I see them fading at the end (like the Red Sox getting passed by the Blue Jays last season).
First off, Philadelphia is the team to beat. They have the offense, lead by MVP Ryan Howard, Notorious Fantasy Baseball Stud Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, even Pat Burrell. They can slug as well as the Mets. The difference this year is that their starting pitching is better. Who would you rather have: Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels (plus underrated back of the rotation studs Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer), or the Mets staff, which is lead by the ancient Tom Glavine, the ancient and injury-prone Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez. John Maine is a prospect that might someday make a decent #3 starter. Banking on Wild Thing Oliver Perez is incredibly risky.
The Mets will stablilize when Pedro Martinez comes back, and if Mike Pelfrey can adapt to pitching in the majors quickly. But with Pedro out until mid-June at the earliest, we see the Phillies jumping out to a quick lead, and by June they will be 5 games ahead.
Also note that the Braves will not be as bad this season as they were last year. Actually, to clarify: they weren't that bad last season, they just had a terrible bullpen. The bullpen last year lead the league in blown saves with 24. 24! If they held on to the lead for half of those games, it’s a different season, isn't it?
They solidified their bullpen by bringing back Bob Wickman, and adding Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzales. In fact, they might now have the best bullpen in the division. The rotation is still a little shaky (Smoltz is solid, Hudson needs to get back to what he was in Oakland, Chuck James is in the Mike Pelfrey "will he adapt" category, Mark Redman is a forever a 5th starter somewhere in this division, and I don't even know if they have named their 5th starter yet).
Finally: The Marlins are a nice young team with great young starting pitching, no bullpen, and some hitting (mostly Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramierez), but they won't win more than 72 games. The Nationals are just plain awful. They might overachieve, but that's because their expectations are set very very low.
National League West
1. San Diego Padres 2. Arizona Diamondbacks 3. San Francisco Giants 4. Los Angeles Dodgers 5. Colorado Rockies
Okay, we like the D-Backs this season. Randy Johnson is back in a comfortable enviroment. Look for a big bounceback from him. Brandon Webb is one of the top two young pitchers in the NL (along with Carlos Zambrano) - expect another NL Cy Young like season from him. Livian Hernandez is an inning-eating machine, which is what you want from your #3. That'll help keep the bullpen fresh, which possesses some decent live arms - we like Jose Valverde, and Jorge Julio. The young position players will be the key to the D-Backs season: Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew (former #1 pick overall), Chris Young, and Conor Jackson are all prospects with high expectations. If Chad Tracy can get some help, and if Arizona can acquire or find a decent cleanup hitter, they might make the playoffs.
The Dodgers don't impress us. Sorry The Dodger Blues, I like Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny is going to break out bigly one of these years, but offensively they are banking on the over-the-hill trio of Nomar, Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzales to be productive. Those steroid junkies haven't been productive since MLB adopted their current drug policy. Coincidence?
Speaking of steroids, that brings us to... Colorado. And Todd Helton. The young team looks good; I was real tempted to bump them up. But I hesitated when I saw their "starting" rotation (we use starting in quotes because they will be lucky to get to the fifth inning on a regular basis). From a Fantasy Baseball prospective, invest heavily in the offense - Helton will have a semi-comeback year (still not as powerful as earlier in career, though; not as long as steroids are banned), Matt Holliday is a stud, and Garrett Atkins is the realness at 3B. They'll put up the numbers on offense.
Okay, and speaking of steroids... yes, this time its the Giants. We like the team, but the loss of Jason Schmidt will hurt them a bit. We don't understand why they didn't keep Schmidt at half the cost of Barry Zito, who might match Schmidt's numbers, but not exceed them. We like Matt Cain, Matt Morris and Noah Lowry. But the offense is weak, and unless Barry Bonds has one more MVP year left in him, they won't pass the D-backs or the Padres.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals 2. Chicago cubs 3. Cincinnati Reds 4. Houston Astros 5. Milwaukee Brewers 6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. Don't bet against him leading the Cards to the playoffs again. The Astros will take a step back (no Pettite, no Clemens). The Pirates and Brewers will improve, but we don't see either as a threat. The Reds will surprise us for the first half of the season like they always do. And then they will run out of gas, like they always do.
That brings us to the new look Cubs, the only competition for the Cards in the division. I like some of their moves, but it'll take them a bit to gel. They'll sputter along early, but when they get Prior back (and Wood, though we believe Prior will actually be a legit contributor this season) they'll start to get some momentum. I mean, you can't argue that Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramierez are able to compete with the top offenses in the NL (namely the Cards, Mets, and Phillies). Carlos Zambrano is a Cy Young contender. Rich Hill can make some moves. But, as always, it comes down to Mr. Mark Prior. If he can get healthy and contribute somewhat this season, the Cubs will get the wild-card spot. If not, we're awarding it to the D-Backs or the Braves.
Final National League Predictions:
Playoff teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Cubs.
Cy Young contenders: Brandon Webb beats out Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt and Randy Johnson (in that order).
MVP: Pujols edges Howard (Utley gets alot of votes, cutting into Howard's chances of repeating).
They are nearly good enough now, but Pat Gillick will make them better as the season begins. This prediction, therefore, is based on faith in the general manager to make a trade or two, either now, or as we get close to the trading deadline of July 31. Or both.
If we still had fast Eddie, I’d put the Fightens third, behind the Braves and Mets.
The bullpen appears shaky, but there are some key components that could come through. Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Matt Smith, Antonio Alfonseca, and Tom Gordon make up the core of the Phillies’ bull pen. Gordon, the closer, 40, is prone to injury and may not last the season. Smith is the unproven rookie in a key role as the bull pen’s only lefthander. Then add in soon to be 37 year-old Jon Lieber, who is currently on loan.
Gillick must add one or two arms, including a closer--in case Gordon goes down--to bolster the bull pen.
The starting rotation can carry the Phillies into the playoffs, barring injuries.
The offense is strong, with key additions in Wes Helms at third, and Rod Barajas behind the plate. They have speed at the top of the order. The combination of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will provide plenty of excitement.
Pat Burrell must get his numbers, at least to equal to last season. If not, he could be an overt weakness in the offense. If his spring training numbers are an indication, the boos my begin to haunt him early. Let’s hope Burrell’s spring numbers were an aberration, and he jumps off to a good start.
The bench appears good enough, too: Jayson Werth, Greg Dobbs, Abraham Nunez, Karim Garcia, with Chris Coste to appear either sooner or later. Gillick may do something to shore up the bench as well, perhaps adding another lefthanded pinch hitter.
Defensively, the Phillies are weak on the left side, with Burrell backing up Helms at third. A ball hit down the line between Helms and the bag could spell trouble for Burrell and the Phillies.
So three ingredients are needed to make the Phillies winners of the NL East: A potent offensive attack, check; a good starting rotation, barring injuries, check; and Pat Gillick making the necessary moves to add to the bull pen and bench, check on hold. Last year the Fightins won 85 games. To win the East in 2007, they’ll need to add six more wins.
As I see it: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Marlins...with one check on hold.
It's that time of year, Spring is in the air and spring training is coming to a close. Opening day is practically upon us so here goes nuthin'. I’m more of an NL guy, so I'll hit the senior circuit now and get back to y'all after more thought on the AL.
That's right kids, my misery is over, after 14 years the hollow feeling that comes at the end of every regular season since '93 will be replaced by elation. I know the Mets have a solid line-up, but look, I've been worrying about the Braves for a decade and half, I'm not going to start worrying about the Mets now. I think the Phils have made enough positive moves to get over the hump and take the East by the horns. They had the bats in place last year, now they've got the arms as well, and here's an extra prediction - Ryan Howard repeats as MVP.
The Cubs sure didn't hesitate to shell out the green in the off-season, but I don't think it'll be enough. The Cards fans will be expecting a lot - Pujols is a freaking monster and Chris Carpenter is still one of the best arms in baseball. This division will be tight, maybe a few games separating the division winner all the way back to number four, but the Cards squeek in. This certainly isn't the best division in baseball, but it may be the most evenly matched.
Pitching is the story in the West, so that determines how they'll finish. The Dodgers have the strength from number one through the pen to edge off the Padres who come in a close second - Lowe, Penny and Schmidt win the race for the West. The rest of the division is pretty meaningless in my opinion, the West is a race of two unless you're in the market for a spectacle(Bonds) instead of baseball.
Playoffs:
So who goes to the big dance - the Phillies! They don't bring home the World Series trophy in '07, but you can bet I'll be wearing that NL Champs shirt all too often until they win the World Series in '08. That's right I'm making my prediction for next year here too, Phil's in '08.
I'm never really very good at this prediction thing, but if I want any chance of having bragging rights come October, I guess I better get on board. While the Dodgers are my team in the National League, I have to confess that I follow the teams in the NL much less closely than the teams in the AL, with the exception of the NL West. So, we'll see how this goes.
NL EAST
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Florida Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Washington Nationals
I guess I just don't see any reason why the Mets can't win it again this year. The Phillies could make a strong case, but in the end, I think the Mets pull away. The Braves will continue to be working on a new streak of years in a row NOT winning the division title. I think Florida might be in contention up until the All-Star break, but then they fizzle out. And hey, now that Soriano is gone from the Nats, who even still plays for that team?
NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Houston Astros
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinatti Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
I think I might be picking the Cubs here out of my hopes more than anything else. I always think it would be nice to see the Cubs do something one year, especially given their collapse in 2003. Maybe Soriano is enough to push them over the edge, maybe not. The Cardinals played well in the playoffs last year, but only won 83 games the whole season. I think the Cubs can beat that. The Cards and Astros could be tied by the end of the season for all I know. And the rest of the teams? Come on.
NL WEST
1. Dodgers
2. Padres (wild card)
3. D-Backs
4. Giants
5. Rockies
Sorry to say it, but I like the Dodgers this year. I think Derek Lowe will have an impressive year, and the rest of the team will follow suit. The Padres will be close, but David Wells will lose a few he should win, possibly because he's super fat, or maybe because he was recently diagnosed with diabetes. Either way, they'll squeak in with the wild card, though I think the Diamondbacks have a shot of pulling the upset there.
Barry Bonds will suffer from some unexplained anger and throw something at Barry Zito, breaking his pitching hand, thus ruining the chances of the Giants having anyone on their staff who will win more than eight games.
Playoffs: Padres over Mets; Dodgers beat the Cubs. Dodgers win NLCS (call me a homer if you want; maybe I'm trying for a self-fulfilling prophecy).
Now that I got the National League predictions out of the way (and let’s be honest, the National League is really just playing 162+ games to see who gets to lose the World Series, last year was an aberration), it’s time to take a look at the superior league. Again, from least important, to most.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
This Indians team is the only team not on the East Coast with what I consider a formidable lineup. Sizemore and Hafner are complete studs, Victor Martinez isn’t far behind (though he throws like Mike Piazza). They’ve got youth in the infield (Peralta, Barfield and Marte) and a good combination of speed and power. They’re going to score a ton of runs, and they’re going to need every last one of them because C.C. Sabathia and Jake Westbrook are basically their entire pitching staff. Joe Borowski is closing, that’s never good.
Despite the lack of pitching, I see the Indians slugging their way through this division. The Ligers played over their heads last year, and Leyland has a way of wearing on his players’ nerves. Sheffield brings a stabilizing influence to their lineup, but pretty much everyone else is just too swing-happy. The Twins are solid, but without Liriano they don’t have the pitching beyond Santana and Nathan. The Chisox will implode, and Guillen will get fired.
AL West
Oakland A’s
LA Angels of A (wild card)
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Every year the A’s lose key parts of their team to free agency and cost-effective trades. Every year I look at their roster and say to myself, “This is the year Moneyball gets disproven,” and every year, right around the All Star break, the law of averages takes effect and the A’s go on a monster winning streak. This year, I’m not going to be fooled. Moneyball works, people. Well, Moneyball works over the course of a 162–game season. Does it work over a shorter sample period, like say a playoff series? No.
So, my pick to win the American League West is relying on Rich Harden, a pitcher who spends more time on the DL than Carl Pavano (not really, but it’s close), as their ace. They replaced Frank Thomas’ 39 home runs and 114 rbi’s with Mike Piazza. Their number 3 hitter, Milton Bradley, is always one voice in his head away from charging into the stands to rip someone’s head off, and yet, I’m still picking them. The A’s have a solid backend to their bullpen in Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer and I’m beyond doubting Beane.
The Angels keep this race close, even though they went out and over spent for Gary Matthews Jr. (minus the HGH). Figgins is hurt, and will start the season on the DL, and I’m convinced Vlad has back surgery in his future somewhere, maybe not that far into the future. That being said, they have young, talented starters, one of the best closer/setup combos in the game and enough pop to score some runs. They win the Wild Card. No one else in this division even approaches relevance.
AL East
Yankees
Blue Jays
Sox
Orioles
D-Rays
The most shocking thing here is that I don’t think the Wild Card comes out of the East. The Yanks are actually in better shape than the health of their starting rotation would lead you to believe. Last year, this team didn’t come to life until after Sheffield and Matsui went down with serious injuries. The reason? Youth. The reason the Yanks haven’t won a World Series since Y2K has nothing to do with talent level, it has everything with energy and desire.
The Yanks made a bunch of moves for the future this off-season, but I think they’re going to pay dividends this year. Phil Hughes will probably start the season in triple A, but don’t expect him to stay there long. Carl Pavano and Andy Pettitte have already shown signs of wear and tear, and who knows how long Chien-Ming Wang is going to be out with his torn hamstring. The Yanks have the young talent waiting in the wings, and their regulars are old enough to dictate a couple timely call ups. The hunger they bring to the lineup will energize the well-fed veterans, and the Yanks will pull away from the pack.
I took the Jays to finish second because their reliance on injury-prone National League-transplant pitchers is lessened by the presence of a true ace (Roy Halladay) and a proven closer (B.J. Ryan). The Sox, in my opinion, didn’t improve in the off-season. Dice-K may be the real deal, he may not. Even if he is, Beckett can’t handle the A.L., Schilling is old, Wakefield is a joke, J.D. Drew was a horrible signing, Coco Crisp looks more like Fruity Flakes and Julio Lugo won’t be allowed to use his only asset, his speed.
Playoffs: Indians over A’s, and it pains me to say this, but Angels over Yanks. The rebuilding process began this year in NY, but it won’t take full effect until next year. The bad apples need to go, the youth needs to be given a real chance. The Angels make the W.S. against the Padres in yet another World Series no one will watch. Flip a coin for the winner. (It came up heads, the Angels win).
Yesterday, I determined the fate of the American League and predicted the New York Yankees to make it to the big dance. Now, I don't watch as many National League games, but I've decided to put pen to paper (or so to speak) and determine the fate of the Senior Circuit anyway. And awaaaaaay we go!
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. New York Mets
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
This division probably won't be decided until the end of September with the top three teams all fighting it out until the bitter end. The Phils have the best pitching staff (even with their injuries), the Mets have the best lineup and the Braves are the Braves and should bounce back after failing to win the division for the first time in 15 years. Tom Gordon is still a quality closer (even though he'll spit the bit in the playoffs) and the Philly offense can hang with the Metropolitans. The Mets starting pitching is a huge question mark -- who can they count on to pitch 200 innings this year? The lack of front-line pitching will tax the bullpen. The Mets may have the best lineup in the NL, but it won't be enough to lead them back to the playoffs. The Braves need Mike Hampton to give them something and Tim Hudson to return to the form he had in Oakland. I don't think Bob Wickman is the answer at closer.
NL Central
1. Houston Astros
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
I don't understand why the 'Stros let Pettitte slip away, but they still have Roy Oswalt. Woody Williams was a solid pick-up and if Brad Lidge gets his head screwed on right, the Astros could be a tough team to beat. Carlos Lee should have a monster year in hitter-friendly Houston and provide more than enough protection for Lance Berkman. Then there's the possible return of the Rocket for the stretch run. The Cardinals are the defending champs even though 2006 was probably their worst team during their current winning run. They still have perennial MVP candidate Albert Pujols and former Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter, but this train is losing steam. Tony La Russa (when not drunk and asleep behind the wheel) will have his work cut out for him. The Cubs should be much improved (which isn't saying a whole lot) and will be a fun team to watch offensively, but their pitching is just too weak. Unless Kerry Wood and Mark Prior finally live up to expectations, even Sweet Lou Pinella won't be able to break the Cubbies' 99-year drought of futility.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Diego Padres*
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
*Wild Card
The Dodgers have the deepest rotation in the NL and had a good off-season with the signings of Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf. Both should flourish in pitcher-friendly L.A. Closer Takashi Saito had a great rookie year for the Dodgers in 2006 (even though he's 36 years old) and the offense should score enough runs to lead the Dodgers to the NL West crown. The Padres won't be easy to hold off, however, and should capture the wild-card. Maybe the newly acquired Greg Maddux can help Jake Peavy finally reach his potential. Trevor Hoffman can still close out games and the Giles brothers (Marcus and Brian) should help the Pods manufacture runs. The signing of Barry Zito won't be enough to help the Giants and the Barry Bonds circus will continue to roll all summer. Where will you be when Barry hits number 756?
NL Champ: Los Angeles Dodgers
West Side! Yep, I'm pickin L.A. I think pitching gets the Dodgers a ticket to play the Yanks in the World Series. It would be a series rich in tradition and I'm sure the TV execs would love it.
Mike over at Green Pinstripes was the first to pop the 2007 baseball predictions cherry for The Vault, and since we’re running short on time before opening day (and the Sixers are off again), I’m going to follow suit.
By division, least important to most:
NL East
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Marlins
Nats
This is a division of lopsided teams, the Mets have all the offense, no starting pitching, somewhat reliable bullpen. The Phils have the offense, the starting pitching and no bullpen. The Braves have the bullpen and a little pop. The Nats, well, the Nats don’t have much of anything to be honest with you. Florida’s young players take a step back without Girardi.
I’m taking the Phils because they have the decided advantage in starting pitching over the Mets, and Billy Wagner isn’t the sure thing out of the pen he once was. I like the Phils to go deep in the playoffs on the strength of their starters and the ability to score in so many different ways. The “X” factor for the Phils is none other than Shane Victorino. Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field brings added speed to the lineup and solid defense. He’s also my fantasy sleeper of the year, he could swipe 40 bases and score 100 runs sandwiched between Rollins and Utley in this lineup.
NL Central
Cubs
Astros
Cards
Brew-has
Reds
Pirates
Yes, I realize the Cards are the defending champs, and no I usually don’t think you can “buy” a division, but the Cubs have done enough to take this weak division. Their pitching isn’t great (Lilly and Marquis weren’t worth the money), but they have an ace in Zambrano. Their bullpen isn’t great (Dempster?). But adding Soriano was huge and Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez make this the best lineup in the division. They’ll get enough out of their staff to take the division. They may be the only team in the division above .500 when all is said and done.
The Astros and Cards should battle for second place all year long. Carlos Lee was a huge addition for the ‘Stros and Morgan Ensberg should bounce back. Oswalt is a legit ace. I don’t have much to say about the Cards. Pujols, Carpenter and 23 other guys.
NL West
Fathers
Giants (wild card)
Dodgers
D-Backs
Rockies
This division is a classic case of age over beauty. The popular pick is a young (besides the Unit) D-Backs team, but I just don’t think they’re ready. Barry Bonds is motivated and juicedcranked geared up for the season. I don’t think he wants to play another year, he’s focused on the record, and Zito will perform well in San Fran against weak lineups. The Giants do enough to win the wild card, but it’s the Padres behind a deep rotation, the Giles brothers and Adrian Gonzalez’s under-rated production who come away with this division.
Peavy, Maddux, Young, David Wells, Clay Hensley and Tim Stauffer of Moneyball fame (CORRECTION: Stauffer wasn’t in Moneyball, he was in The Last Best League, I highly recommend this book) waiting in the wings make for a formidable rotation, especially in that ball park. Hoffman, unbelievably, is still going strong at the back end of the bullpen, and Linebrink is a solid 7th-8th inning guy.
Playoffs: Phils over Giants, Padres over Cubs in the division series. In the NLCS the Padres’ pitching prevails, Philadelphia will have to wait until February for its first championship in over two decades.
Well, Spring has sprung, and with the start of the baseball season less than a week away, I've decided to throw my "expert" picks into the vault for the upcoming 2007 season. I'm not going to make wild predictions like picking the Devil Rays in the AL East or choosing the Royals to represent the American League in the World Series just for the sake of being different. That takes no guts. So, without further ado, here are my picks for the AL this year:
AL East
1. Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox*
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
*Wild Card
I still believe the Yanks have the best team in the division even with their recent pitching woes. Their lineup is balanced from top to bottom and they should really beat up on the lesser teams in the league. Look for Alex Rodriguez to put up MVP-type numbers in his "opt year" and for Derek Jeter to continue being Derek Jeter. But the deciding factor (as always) is the Sandman: Mariano Rivera. If there is one guy who is responsible for the Yanks winning 4 World Championships and 9 straight AL East crowns, it's Rivera. He's the main reason why the Yanks make it an even ten straight in 2007. In my opinion, the Red Sox definitely made the right decision by reinserting Jonathan Papelbon back into the closer role. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are still the best 3-4 hitters in baseball. That's why they get the nod for a wild-card berth. The Blue Jays could be tough, especially if Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett stay healthy. B.J. Ryan was also lights-out in his first year as the Blue Jays closer. The Blue Jays are closing the gap on their rivals in the East, but still come up a bit short.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals
As much as I'd love to see Kenny Rogers, I-Rod and Gary Sheffield finish in 4th place this year, I can't deny that they still possess a strong starting rotation and an even stronger bullpen. I also really like Jimmy Leyland's managerial style. The Tigers let the division slip away in the final regular season game last year, but this year they get the job done. The White Sox should challenge the Tigers for the division lead all summer, but I don't think pitchers Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez can be counted on to pitch well consistently. If the ChiSox get off to a slow start, look for Ozzie Guillen to be an early candidate on the managerial hot seat. The Twins came out of nowhere to steal the division last year, but they can't start Johan Santana every game and their offense (even with last year's MVP Justin Morneau and batting champion Joe Mauer) lacks the overall depth to scare most teams. Manager Rod Gardenhire has done a great job in Minnesota, but he just doesn't have the horses to make a run in this division.
AL West
1. Los Angels Angels of Anaheim
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
I'm amazed how the Angels don't win 100 games every season. Their starting rotation is one of the best in the league, their lineup has a nice mix of power and speed and they have a dominant closer in Francisco Rodriguez. If Bartolo Colon is fully recovered from his off-season rotator cuff injury, this team could easily clinch the West before the kiddies go back to school. The A's are the league's zombie team; they refuse to die. Every year they lose key players and every year they still contend. But, the loss of Barry Zito hurts and Rich Harden has to prove he can remain injury-free. Like the Twins, their offense doesn't frighten anyone, but if Nick Swisher can cut down on his whiffs and Milton Bradley can keep his cool, maybe the A's can contend with the Angels. As for the Texas Rangers, I can only offer this: Buck Showalter was dismissed from the Yankees after the 1995 season. Result in 1996: Yanks win World Series. Showalter was fired from the Arizona Diamondbacks after the 2000 season. Result in 2001: D-Backs win World Series. Showalter was let go after the 2006 season with the Rangers. Result in 2007: ? (Third Place).
AL Champ: Yankees
Am I picking with my head or my heart? A little from column A, a little from column B. The starting rotation was a concern even before the recent rash of injuries, but I still think the Yanks have the best team. But, the BoSox are always tough, the Angels always give the Yanks trouble and the Tigers are the defending AL Champs, so it's not going to be easy in 2007. Here's hoping my predictions turn prophetic and help the Yankees to their 40th pennant.
Two games, two points. One loss, one win. If the Sixers fall one game short of the playoffs this year, they'll look at the Chicago loss on Wednesday and say "What if?" If they make it by one game, tonight's gutsy, gutsy 89-88 win over the Jazz will probably be viewed as the turning point.
Before we go any further, I'd like to point out that our first Vault prediction has been proven false. Brandon, whose man-crush on Jason Williams has reached epic proportions, made a prediction about the Sixers for some reason, and it fell flat on its face tonight. Congrats for being the first Brandon, others will join you soon, but you're the first to have that limb you climbed out on crumble underneath you. Maybe you should limit your predictions to things you know about, like over/under for total number of horrible tattoos on JWil's arms.
And now back to the game. The Sixers came out hot, again, and built a 12 point lead, but could never stretch it any further than that. The Jazz went on a monster run in the 4th quarter, and took a 3-point lead. At that point, Andre Miller had had enough. He put the Sixers on his back, and put the game on a seesaw. Miller and Deron Williams traded buckets two or three times, and Carlos Boozer came to life in the final quarter.
The Sixers were down one with 8 seconds and change left on the clock when Kyle Korver lost Gordan Giricek and sank a wide open jumper from just inside the three-point line. Giricek got hung up on a Sameul Dalembert screen and went down like he'd been shot. He stayed on the ground for about five minutes, apparently waiting for a yellow card. The Jazz got the ball back with 5.1 seconds left on the clock, and Deron Williams pushed his luck, heaving up a contested three with 4 seconds left in the game. Joe Smith secured the rebound, and that was all she wrote.
Iguodala had a great game, and hit a huge shot to give the Sixers the lead with less than 30 seconds left, but Andre Miller gets the player of the game tonight. Miller just wouldn't be denied in the fourth. When the Jazz came back and took the three point lead, Miller went to work down on the post, from the corner, in the lane. This is something he does almost every game. When a run by the other team needs to be stopped, he creates his own shot and stops the run himself. This is the quality the Sixers need most from their veteran point guard. Miller's line for the game, 16 points, 7 boards and 7 dimes.
The Sixers have been rolling lately, but that's all coming to an end.
My prediction.
At Atlanta = L
Chicago = L
Utah = L
Houston = L
At Detroit = L
Atlanta is a classic "trap" game that will start this downward spiral. Sorry if anyone had pipe dream playoff hopes. Those will be dashed to bits by the end of next week.
Here are SML's predictions for the rest of the NBA season:
Eastern Conference:
Toronto 45-37 New Jersey 38-44 New York 38-44 Philadelphia 27-55 Boston 24-58
Detroit 51-31 Cleveland 45-37 Chicago 44-38 Indiana 41-41 Milwaukee 30-52
Washington 44-38 Miami 44-38 Orlando 41-41 Atlanta 34-48 Charlotte 30-52
Basically, we expect the follow teams to be better the second half than they have been so far: Miami (18-12 predicted finish); Atlanta (almost .500 down the stretch, 13-17); Cleveland (14-15, cruise control into playoffs once division is out of reach).
The following teams we predict will struggle: Washington (13-17, mainly because the lose of Jamison hurts the team), Indiana (13-17 down the stretch).
Playoff seeding: 1. Detroit 2. Toronto 3. Cleveland 4. Miami 5. Washington 6. Chicago 7. Orlando 8. Indiana
The Vault is a place for all the Blogs By Fans bloggers to post their predictions to. As a group, we'll revisit these predictions throughout the season, to see who knows what they're talking about, who thinks with his heart and who's just crazy.
Here's the inaugural post to The Vault.
Since the All Star break is the psychological mid-point of the basketball season, we're going to call the 30ish games left the second half. Here are some predictions for what's to come as the push for the playoffs (or the lottery) unfolds. I'm going to stick to what I know. I'll give a detailed prediction for the Atlantic Division and general playoff/award predictions for the entire league.
Atlantic Division: The Atlantic is pitiful. There's no denying that. The division's cumulative record is 50 games under .500. This is probably going to change, not drastically, but it will change. The Celtics will play better down the stretch purely because Paul Pierce is back. The Sixers have been playing better since Iverson left (5-19 before, 12-17 since), they also have 17 of their last 29 games left at home. They should improve. Toronto has shocked me so far, and I don't see any reason why that won't continue. The team that's going to suffer the most from a somewhat resurgent Atlantic Division is the Knicks. They've been motivated by the media's attack of their coach, but that motivation won't be enough down the stretch. This team isn't going to make the playoffs and when Crawford, Marbury and Curry realize that, they're going to turn back into pumpkins. Look for them to have a disappointing second half. The Nets will either make the playoffs or completely tank the season, and it all depends on Jason Kidd. If he goes to the Lakers, forget the season. If he stays, they have enough talent to grab the 8th seed, maybe the 7th if they're lucky. Their schedule looks pretty easy from here on out. Here are my predictions for final records:
Sixers: Currently (17-36), Final Record (27-55).
Celtics: Currently (13-38), Final Record (23-59).
Nets: Currently (25-29), Final Record (40-42) [If Kidd doesn't leave].
Raptors: Currently (29-25), Final Record (46-36).
Knicks: Currently (23-30), Final Record (34-48).
Other predictions: Steve Nash as MVP for the third consecutive year. The caveat being that he doesn't miss another significant stretch due to injury. Honestly, the only reason he wouldn't win it is because the sportswriters are tired of writing his name down. The Suns are 37-9 with Nash, 2-4 without him. He's averaging nearly 20 points per game and 12 assists. His presence makes that team a legitimate contender for the title, without him on the floor they're a first-round exit. Here's a mini-stat for you to support my case. In the past three games that Nash missed Amare Stoudemire shot 42%, 43% and 44% from the floor, in the last game he played with Nash, 76%.
No matter how hard Marc Cuban politics for Dirk Nowitzki, he's just not as important to the Mavs as Nash is to the Suns. The Mavs surround Nowitzki with top-level talent. Nash takes guys off the scrap heap and makes them play like all stars.
Coach of the Year: Sam Mitchell. He's not a great coach, and the GM is really responsible for the turnaround in Toronto, but the development of that team is going to turn enough heads to get him the nod.
Rookie of The Year: Andrea Bargnani, the 7-foot euro got off to a slow start, but his minutes and production have increased recently and I see him flourishing as the year comes to a close. Brandon Roy is everyone's favorite for this award, but I'm going with the euro. Roy is a 43% shooter, 30% from 3 and his ancillary stats are nothing to write home about.
Sixth Man: Ben Gordon. I don't like his game, but he's the most productive off the bench. I'd actually vote for David Lee, but he won't win it.
The Draft: The Grizzlies will have the most balls in the lottery, but the Sixers will get a pleasant surprise come draft day because they're going to have a few extra balls of their own. Denver will not make the playoffs and the first round pick they sent to Philly for Iverson will turn into a lottery pick. Pairing Iverson with 'Melo was a bad idea, and Denver is going to be looking for the ejector seat within a year.
This is probably just wishful thinking, but I'm going to guess that Memphis will get the number 1 pick, Philly number 2. Memphis will take Durant, and the Sixers will get Oden.
UPDATE, FEB. 22: Orlando Magic, 41-41, 7th seed in the East.
Let's start with the Angels, and let's preface this by making it clear that we think the Rangers will give the Angels a run for their money. One little injury and we're jumping on the Ranger's bandwagon, okay? Now, the Angels. Hitting? Yes, potential MVP candidate Vlad Guerrero, surrounded by lots of young talent, including future batting champ Howie Kendricks, Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales, and catching prospect Jeff Mathis (if he can get some playing time behind another young catcher, Mike Napoli). But the problem with this team is that the Angels' offense is very dependent on Vlad. One injury, one tweak of that suspect 31-year old back of Vlad, and the Angels chances are gone. For that reason, we are sorely tempted to predict the Rangers on top, because SML senses an injury coming this year for Vlad. 
The Rangers are an interesting team. They have an amazingly talented young infield - 3B Hank Blalock still struggles against lefties, and in the second half, but possess lots of hitting ability; SS Michael Young is one of the top-3 hitting shorts in the AL (along with Jeter and Tejeda); 2B Ian Kinsler is the poor man's Kendrick, a young future .300 hitter; and Mark Texiera, despite a subpar season last year, is one of the biggest sluggers in baseball. He could hit a Ryan Howard-like number of homers this year (we have him pegged at 49, but he might top that). Unfortunately the outfield is suspect - Kenny Lofton is still playing?; B.B. Wilkerson strikes out way too much; I think I remember a Nelson Cruz from junior high. He was a chubby kid. He lost on Where In The World Is Carmen Sandiego. Expect some Sammy Sosa action here.
Wow, its the most competitive division in the American League. Aside from penning in KC as a last place team (we like Alex Gordon, Zach Greinke, Octavio Dotel, and Mark Teahan for fantasy baseball purposes), any of the other four teams could win. So let's start with the Indians. 
We like the Tigers. They'll be focused this season, looking to make up for last season's blown World Series. The offense will be solid, with Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield, and Ivan Rodriguez as the heart of the lineup. We like Shef's MVP chances this year - mark him down as a legit darkhorse candidate. 
National League East: 
The Dodgers don't impress us. Sorry The Dodger Blues, I like Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny is going to break out bigly one of these years, but offensively they are banking on the over-the-hill trio of Nomar, Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzales to be productive. Those steroid junkies haven't been productive since MLB adopted their current drug policy. Coincidence? 
NL Central 
AL Central
AL West
AL East
NL East
NL Central
NL West
