Blogs By Fans

Things to Read: 3/9

2010-03-09T19:07:22Z

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Big League Stew: Joe Nathan might be out for the season. Whoop.

Pippen Ain't Easy: Scottie Pippen on Leno.

Sox Machine: Viciedo is in Ozzie's doghouse.

Pitchfork: New MGMT.

And a music video. After the jump...

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Back Against It

2010-03-09T12:55:56Z

The biggest news from Cardinals camp yesterday didn't come out of the matchup between the Cards and the Red Sox, between Chris Carpenter and Josh Beckett. The news of the day was made before the game even started and hopefully hasn't put the team's back to the wall.

Albert Pujols didn't make the trip yesterday as scheduled due to back stiffness, instead seeing a chiropractor for an adjustment. Now, anytime Pujols has so much as a hangnail, Cardinal Nation starts grabbing the paper bags, having hyperventilation of the non-prospect kind. For good reason, of course--as Pujols goes, so go the Cardinals. Even with the solid club that John Mozeliak has put together for 2010, the foundation is AP and without him, it's a much tougher climb.

If the reports coming out of the team are true, this is more precautionary than anything, that if it was the regular season he might play through it. We'll see more when he takes the field on Wednesday and hopefully this will be the last report of such things. It'd be a shame for him to finally have that elbow feeling good to be then sidelined by his back.

The game had some interesting facets as well. Carpenter wasn't sharp, it sounds like, but he was still fairly effective. It's always good to see Carp go out there and be the pitcher we know he can be. After so many injuries, last year seemed like a mirage--if you looked too close, it would vanish and those promises would be empty. It didn't happen last year, though, and as he said yesterday, you don't really worry about every start being his last. Well, at least too much.

Brendan Ryan is coming along quicker than expected, according to reports. Which is not the way Cardinal injuries usually go, but it's a welcome change. I'm still not 100% that Ryan won't start the year on the DL, but at least now it looks like the chances of that happening are starting to decrease.

It's a big day in prospect circles. There will be a lot of focus on the Nationals game, where Stephen Strasburg is to make his spring training debut, but closer to home, Shelby Miller is likely to get into today's game against the Twins. Odds are it'll be his last appearance with the big squad, getting sent to the minor league camp afterwards, but still it'll be intriguing to see him on the mound, giving the team a glimpse of the future.

Adam Wainwright should get the start today against Minnesota, so looking forward to seeing the Wagonmaker back in the saddle. And i you've not voted in the Cardinal Approval Ratings, best get to it!

Julius Peppers Gets His Nickname

2010-03-09T05:51:32Z

People like Julius Peppers - people so big and so athletic that "freak" is used as the ultimate compliment - need nicknames.

Well, Peppers has been in the NFL for eight seasons and still doesn't have a nickname. This is highly unacceptable.

Since making up terrible nicknames for people much greater than them is something sportswriters specialize in, I thought it was my civic duty to give Peppers a nickname. Julius "Hot In Herrrr" Peppers, perhaps?

But no. Dallas Mavericks center Brendan Haywood, Peppers' teammate on the North Carolina basketball team back in the early aughts, beat me to it.

"We called him 'Features,' " said Haywood, now a center for the Dallas Mavericks. "Just all of his features -- his heads, his hands, his feet -- all of them were so big."

"Features" it is. I am fully behind this.

Also from that Trib story: video of Julius Peppers throwing down a monster alley-oop during his Tar Heel days. For TUP, I'm not sure anything could be more relevant.

Shea Stadium's Trivia Answer Presses On

2010-03-08T21:11:04Z

The AP has a nice update today on Joe Nelson.

You may win a bar bet with that name. Nelson was the last pitcher to win a game at Shea Stadium. He pitched a scoreless 7th for the Marlins on Sept. 28, 2008 and got the victory
(I just re-read my memory of that last game at Shea...man, what a rough day).

It is fitting that the guy with the last victory at Shea only has seven wins total in a nine year career.

Here's the story:

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Joe Nelson won the last game ever played at Shea Stadium. He received a World Series ring for pitching just three games with the Boston Red Sox.

The reliever's other career milestones are less joyous -- four serious surgeries, seven major league organizations and too many grueling days of rehabilitation for him to count.

Now Nelson faces another challenge. He's one of about a half dozen pitchers competing for the lone vacancy in Boston's bullpen, a hurdle his history of dealing with adversity may help him overcome.

"I thrive in situations like that," the right-hander said Sunday. "I love the game. I'm 35 and I still get to play a game I've been playing since I was 4 years old. I can't think of anything I'd rather do."

That passion has kept him going through all the trips to operating rooms and different baseball clubhouses.

Nelson had Tommy John surgery in 1999. Operations on his right labrum, a cuff of cartilage that stabilizes the shoulder, followed in 2001, 2002 and 2007. He missed almost four full seasons.

And he's been with nearly twice as many organizations. After six seasons in the Atlanta system, he moved to Boston, the New York Mets, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Kansas City, Florida and Tampa Bay again.

And, now, back to Boston.

"My wife and family have always said, 'play as long as you want, as long as you're able to, but once you quit, you're done. You're not going to come back,' " Nelson said. "I had a lot of nights where I said, 'I don't know if this is going to work out.' I called my friends and they'd be like, 'Don't quit. 9-to-5 gigs are not as fun as they're cracked up to be.' "

He gains confidence from the success he's had when healthy.

Since his last surgery sidelined him for all of 2007, he went 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 59 appearances for Florida in 2008 and 3-0 with a 4.02 ERA in 42 games for Tampa Bay in 2009.

Nelson's brief stint with the Red Sox in 2004 was far less productive. He was promoted from Triple-A Pawtucket on July 9 and sent back there 12 days later after posting a 16.88 ERA in 2 2-3 innings.

But, just like Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez, he received a World Series ring.

"It's a prized possession," Nelson said. "I wasn't on the postseason roster and I only threw in a few games but I was a part of that team and they can look in the books if they want to and go, 'yeah, he actually did pitch.' "

The most memorable accomplishment of his career came four years later with the Marlins.

They were at Shea Stadium on Sept. 28, 2008, the last day of the regular season, for the final game in the 44-year-old ballpark. The Mets and Milwaukee Brewers were tied for the NL wild-card berth. If both won or both lost, they would meet in a one-game playoff.

But Milwaukee beat the Chicago Cubs 3-1, and Florida beat New York 4-2, breaking a tie in the eighth inning on a homer by Wes Helms. The next batter, Dan Uggla, also homered. Nelson pitched just one inning, striking out two in a perfect seventh, to earn the last win at Shea.

"That's something I'll hold onto," he said. "I have a good friend that's a Mets fan and I went up to home plate after the game and scooped up some dirt and I had it authenticated by Major League Baseball and I gave it to him for Christmas."

Nelson has won only six other major league games. He has two losses and a 4.07 ERA with 13 saves in 149 outings.

"He's shown a lot of perseverance, both from a physical standpoint and what's he's come back from and never being a guy who was guaranteed anything," Boston pitching coach John Farrell said. "We're looking for that second lefty in the bullpen or a right-hander that can attack left-handers efficiently. He's going to get a long look here in camp."

That's all Nelson wants.

"I don't take any days for granted," he said. "Every day I get to put on a uniform is special. I know one day I'm going to have to give it up, but who knows when that will be? I've had a weird career. Maybe I'll last a lot longer."

If he must start the season at Pawtucket, he's willing. After all, he didn't make a major-league opening day roster until last year, his 14th in pro baseball. He said his arm has felt "spectacular" in spring training but knows that could change at any time.

"Today when I go out and play catch if it feels good then I'll make it through another day," Nelson said. "I've already lived every kid's fantasy and if it ended today I could walk away from this game completely satisfied because all I ever wanted to do since I was 4 years old was play in the big leagues.

"I'm lucky to be doing what I'm doing."

Things to Read: 3/8

2010-03-08T19:25:05Z

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Blog Down Bears: Julius Peppers likes to party.

Ball Don't Lie: Trey grades NBA style.

Rob Neyer: Jonah Hill is playing Paul DePodesta in the "MoneyBall" movie.

True Hoop: Kobe and LeBron buy All-Star teammates Dr. Dre headphones.

And a music video. After the jump...

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More About a Long Term Panda Contract

2010-03-08T17:15:28Z

I mused Friday on the possibilities for a long-term contract for Pablo Sandoval. The Chron's Hank Schulman added a tidbit this weekend, noting that the Giants won't discuss more than a one-year renewal for this season:

...team official Bobby Evans told me this morning that he and Sandoval's agent are negotiating only a one-year deal for the Panda, which has been the custom for the Giants with players owning less than two years of service time. In other words, the Giants are not ready to buy out any of Sandoval's future arbitration years.

Splitting The Weekend

2010-03-08T13:08:30Z

Two games, one win.

The Cards finally broke the seal on the win column this weekend. After falling Saturday in extra innings to Florida, they were able to get a win against the Marlins on Sunday. Kyle McClellan had a very solid start, but had to since his main competition, Rich Hill, was just about as good. McClellan went three innings of one-hit ball, while Hill came in and struck out two in his two innings, though he did allow a wind-aided home run.

I don't know that this outing tells us a whole lot about McClellan, though probably a little bit. He's not an unknown quantity. We know that he can get batters out, especially in a short outing. He's gone two or three innings before in the bigs. (OK, three innings just once, but the point holds.) The key is going to be when he starts lengthening out his starts and facing the bats two or three times. Will he make adjustments? Will the batters catch up to him? Can he keep the focus and stamina through a longer time on the mound? While there's no indication that these questions will be answered in a negative fashion, we still need to wait until his next start (and possibly the one after that) to get a good feel for him as a starter.

In Hill's case, it was good to see that the "dead arm" he had earlier in camp has apparently cleared up, at least somewhat. Seeing if he can handle the longer outings will be something to keep an eye on as well. His command apparently was fairly strong, though he did throw as many pitches in two innings as McClellan did in three, which is something to watch. Both of these guys go again Friday, with Hill going first, and the most intriguing battle of the spring picks up again then.

The other news from the weekend was that the first cuts were made, as ten were sent to the minor league camp. While some of these guys will still get a little filler time with the big club during the spring, they'll do most of their work with the minor leaguers. Not really any surprises on there--Charlie Zink's blowup this week apparently cost him quickly--but I think the most surprising thing to me is that Shelby Miller wasn't on the list. His batterymate, Robert Stock, was, so I was expecting to see his name, especially since players will still go back and forth. Apparently they think there is still value in Miller hanging with the big kids. I'm looking forward to him getting into a game, and wouldn't be surprised if that doesn't happen today or tomorrow.

The UCB roundtable is still going strong, with the transcript of this weekend's question up over at Stan Musial's Stance. For the complete schedule and links to the transcripts that are up, check over here.

If you haven't already, be sure to put in your entry into the 2010 Cardinal Approval Ratings! Already 46 entries in, so I'm looking forward to how they shake out. The deadline is Friday, so head on over and get them in!

Today's an exciting matchup, even if it is spring training. The Cardinals travel over to Boston's spring training camp for a game that will pit Chris Carpenter against Josh Beckett. That one should be a lot of fun!

Cubs Fan Tom Morello Scolds Racist Cubs Fans

2010-03-08T05:47:52Z

Baseball has been back for about two and half weeks now, and we've still yet to make fun of the Cubs. This needs to end.

Enter my main man Tom Morello - Rage Against the Machine guitar wizard, Chicagoan, and noted Cubs fan.

On Twitter this weekend, Morello reminded me of my all-time favorite Chicago sports meme: Cubs fans have a fun recent history of racism.

Take it away, Nightwatchman (read the bottom one first):

Ah, so good.

I can talk about this all day, but I'll keep it as brief as possible.

Whenever I'm engaged in "Are Cubs fans racist?" arguments, one counterpoint that is always raised is that the Cubs have a long history of great black players who the fans loved. But, newsflash: it's a different breed of fan. The drunks heckling Milton Bradley in the Wrigley bleachers in 2009 are 20-somethings, not the same people in the stadium who supported Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, or even Andre Dawson.

And yeah Cubs fans, where there's smoke, there's fire. Even Kerry Wood said it, and we all know Kerry Wood can never tell a lie.

But as much I enjoy the idea of Cubs fans being stupid and racist, it's actually rather unfortunate. Cubs fans are Bears fans and Bulls fans and 'Hawks fans, and, most importantly, Cubs fans are Chicagoans.

That is to say: Cubs fans aren't racist because they're Cubs fans, Cubs fans are racist because they're people. And some people are racist, especially when aided by 100 degree weather, lots of friends, and eight $7 Old Styles.

The last decade was horribly embarrassing for you, Cubs fans. Get your shit together this year. Don't lob slurs at Marlon Byrd when he strikes out. Don't make signs accusing Kosuke Fukudome of being a bad driver. Stop thinking the reason your team sucks is because Mark DeRosa and Reed Johnson are gone. And while you're at it, stop throwing beer on opposing players.

Listen, let's be honest: you people need all the good karma you can possibly get. Doing away with the racist stuff is the first step.

A Bummer for Burriss

2010-03-07T08:06:11Z

The Giants split a pair of exhibition games today, but the big news was about Manny Burriss's left foot. Tests showed he refractured it Wednesday, and reports said he'll be in a boot for a month. Even if he's a fast healer, I have to wonder how quickly the Giants will want him back. He first broke the foot last July and missed the rest of 2009. The last thing anyone wants is for this to become a chronic problem that drives a talented kid out of baseball.

He had little chance of making the big squad on Opening Day, and his stint as the starting second baseman last year revealed some big flaws in his game. He just turned 25, and he's got a long way to go to be a decent major league hitter. But with a lot of work in AAA this year, I imagine he'd be in the running as a backup infield candidate in 2011, perhaps even a starting shortstop longshot, when Renteria is no longer a Giant. Now he'll miss at least two or three months of valuable development time on top of the lost second half last year. I feel for the guy.

Playing Pepper 2010: Los Angeles Dodgers

2010-03-06T23:10:38Z

Last year before the season began, I posed five questions to a blogger for each team, so as to get to know the rest of baseball. I focus so heavily on the Cardinals that sometimes the rest of MLB can pass me by. That went very well, so much so that it spawned not only a postseason edition but was part of the impetus for the formation of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

So this year, I've brought Playing Pepper back, with a little bit of a twist. Instead of five questions, I posed 10 questions, and this year every team got the same set. Plus, tapping into those BBA connections, I sent them to every blogger representing that team in the BBA.

We'll try to do two a day in a general alphabetical order, but things may change depending on responses.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2009 Finish: 95-67, first in NL West, lost in NLCS

The last memories Cardinal fans have of the Dodgers aren't good. After so often dominating the team in blue when it comes to postseason glory, St. Louis went down with little more than a whimper in the NLDS, meaning LA won its first post-season series since 1988.

Will they be able to take the next step this year? I talked with Matt from Feeling Dodger Blue to get his take on the season to come.

]]> C70: How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it?

FDB: The off-season was salvaged by a few decent moves to provide infield and outfield depth. Alfredo Amazega, Reed Johnson and the Ronnie Belliard/Jamey Carroll combo platter will be adequate. Pitching is still a concern that wasn't addressed well enough. I give the off-season a C+.

C70: What is the key to success for 2010?

FDB: The success is hinging on the pitching staff. It's really up to Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. Can Billingsley return to form and can Kuroda make 30 starts and be the guy we've seen glimpses of? Finding a back end of the rotation guy is going to be vital.

C70: What will be the team's strength?

FDB: I think the team's strength will be its bullpen again. With Troncoso, Belisario, Sherrill and Broxton, once they have a lead after the sixth inning the game will be over most times.

C70: What could be their Achilles' heel?

FDB: Getting consistency from the rotation. Right now Clayton Kershaw is the No. 1 pitcher, and he hasn't even turned 22 yet. They need a guy who can go out and shove it for seven or eight innings when the team is in a funk and they don't have that guy that you know is going to be consistent every time out. For the first time in a while, starting pitching is a big question in Dodger Land.

C70: Who will be the team's MVP?

FDB: Matt Kemp. No doubt. He's just scratching the surface. He'll probably win another gold glove, he'll hit over .300, 30-plus bombs, drive in over 100 and steal 30-40 bases. The kid is only getting better.

C70: Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

FDB: I'll throw out two. I'm gonna say John Ely and/or Ivan DeJesus Jr. Ely was acquired in the trade with the White Sox involving Juan Pierre. He has a control pitcher who put up great numbers at Double-A last year. If he is a guy that can hit spots and get people out, he'll have a legit chance of being the fifth starter at some point. DeJesus was derailed last year by a broken leg, so he's a year removed from where he should be. With that said, the second base position is up in the air with Amazega, Blake DeWitt, Belliard and Carroll all looking for
playing time. DeJesus might be able to force the Dodgers hand by playing well at Triple-A this year, and he might end up being their best Big League option.

C70: Who will be the breakout player for the team?

FDB: Did Clayton Kershaw breakout in 2009? Only eight wins, but an ERA of 2.79, an opponents average of .200 and 9.74 K's per nine. If you don't consider that a breakout, then 2010 should see him win 15 or more games, with similar secondary numbers. Kid is legit. Other than him, I would say James Loney is due to breakout and hit 20 bombs and drive in 100.

C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

FDB: Manny Ramirez. And he already basically dropped off in 2009. I'm expecting nothing out of him and I expect his slide to continue.

C70: Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

FDB: Manny Ramirez. The Dodgers would eat a significant part of his salary, but an AL team might come knocking for a DH if he seems unhappy or the club is unhappy. This team's trade flexibility is non-existent. Not offering Hudson and Wolf arbitration has put a strain on the farm
system as well.

C70: What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

FDB: The team is still good enough to win the division, so I say the finish first and go 92-70, besting the Giants by four games and the Rockies by six games.

Thanks to Matt for taking the time to talk about the Dodgers. I'm sure a lot of Cardinal fans wouldn't mind seeing them have a good year, so as to set up a potential rematch in October.

Still Just Spring Training

2010-03-06T14:37:47Z

At least there was a reason.

Brad Penny was one of the most intriguing names brought into St. Louis during the offseason. A lot of us were interested to see what this guy, who had been a very successful pitcher in the past, could do with Dave Duncan's tutelage. So seeing the results yesterday would be a little worriesome, if there wasn't a reason.

It's hard to remember sometimes that spring training is just that, training. In the regular season, you don't go into a game saying, "Let's see, my sinker needs work, I'm going to keep throwing that no matter what happens." Pitchers play with pitches, trying to see what they need to do to get them sharp and ready.

So, as much as I'd like to, I've got to resist drawing any conclusions out of yesterday's results. As I say that, though, I'll take that back. There is one conclusion I think you can make: Lance Lynn wants to make a run at this roster.

Lynn threw three perfect innings and so far has been the best pitcher of the spring. (Sure, it's only been two games, but have you seen those two games?) I still expect he'll wind up in Springfield or Memphis, but we thought that about Kyle McClellan a few years back as well. The Cardinals are looking for a long relief guy, especially if McClellan makes the rotation, so Lynn is making sure his name is on that list.

Cards take on the Marlins today (something we say often during spring training) and the lineup is out there. Felipe Lopez makes his debut, Albert Pujols plays in his second straight game, and Colby Rasmus bats cleanup. The game is on KTRS today, so tune in and get your first taste of John Rooney and Mike Shannon.

Speaking of our announcers, if you look on the right side of this blog (a little ways down the page), you'll see last year's Cardinal Approval Ratings. Last year, I picked a person a day and everyone posted their rating here, on CardsClubhouse, or at Viva El Birdos. This year, I'm doing it a little differently. You can find a form with everyone right over here. Fill it out and I'll announce the results on a daily basis after the voting closes on March 12. Have fun!

The Ballad of Ricky-Bobby: Salt & Peppers

2010-03-05T16:36:07Z

It's 9:52 a.m. as I type this sentence and Julius Peppers is reportedly on his way to Chicago.

RICKY: As the world has heard by now, the Bears are going all out to sign the best player on the free agent market: Lovie Smith flew out to Carolina to meet with Peppers at midnight-ish this morning, and the Bears have a "substantial offer" on the table.

Shades of an O'Hare parade for T-Mac? Maybe, but at least the Bears are showing they aren't messing around. Peppers may be able to get more guaranteed money from other teams, but the Bears are clearly the most proactive team.

The Bears. Proactive. Yes, this is all happening, and it really looks like the Bears are going to get this done.

ESPN's Adam Schefter sez:
There are obvious downsides to signing Peppers: he's 30, has a reputation for taking plays off, and will get the richest contract in franchise history if not the richest contract ever for a defensive player. But as a Bears fan, this has to excite you.

If there are 100 things on my mind, the Bears are 101st, or at least they were two days ago. Peppers would change everything. Recognize the risk, but recognize the reward. More importantly, the Bears are trying to win, and that's pretty awesome.

When news broke that the Bears traded for Cutler, I was seriously floored. This time I'm surprised, but, like I noted 10 days ago, Peppers makes sense. The Bears are desperate, the Bears need some good P.R., and, perhaps most importantly, the Bears really love pass rushers.

Throw in the news that the Bears have already signed blocking tight end Brandon Manumaleuna and are going hard after ex-Viking running back Chester Taylor, and yeah, this could be a pretty crazy day.

BOBBY: It's weird, because as excited as I am for all of this, it's so damn easy to be negative. I think I'll start negative and work my way back to positive.

1) Remember the Redskins: Albert Haynesworth was a monster two seasons ago in his contract year for the Titans. Easily in the debate for the league's best player. Despite the massive amounts of money thrown his way, it wasn't a bad signing -- by any means -- for the 'Skins. But he kinda flopped. Peppers has the potential to do the exact same thing -- but he was never as great as Haynesworth to begin with. So, yeah, clich time: the off-season winner rarely wins the Super Bowl.

2) The Uniform Theory comes into play in a big way: I have long been of the mind players get worse by simply wearing a Bears jersey. The ultimate examples are probably Kordell Stewart and Muhsin Muhammad. What makes Moose's example so funny is he was good in Carolina, dece with the Bears, and then went back to Carolina and became good again.

Fast, good, cool

Slow, bad, disappointing

You're telling me Peppers doesn't fit the mold? Let's peep the headline pic they're showing on ESPN.

So cool looking. Like he'd be fast, athletic, beastly... healthy. The Bears jersey is like wearing a big body weight. Everything about you as a player becomes worse (unless you're Tommie Harris in his prime). This could be the beginning of the end for him. Plus there's real reasons, like his aforementioned age. The good news is the Uniform Theory primarily affected offensive players, so there's reason to think a defensive player can overcome the setback of the jersey.

3) It's the Bears: If you had to bet your life on Peppers being very great or a huge bust, what would you choose? Very great?! Liar!

But ignoring all of these points, I just don't care, I'm happy with all of this. Completely. The Bears aren't going to get better by doing nothing. These moves are proactive, have high upside, and are a major step in the right direction if they pan out. I love 'em.

If only we had the terror of no draft picks motivating the Bears every year...

* * *

RICKY: What's maybe most shocking about the Bears off-field transformation the last two years is how flexible they've been. Like, we're on the verge of a historic trade (how many guys have been traded for two first rounders?) and a historically big free agent contract in back to back years. If I was told this in March 2009, there's no way I'd believe it.

This is because the Bears are generally pretty stubborn. Most teams are, and I'm sure it makes sense for business reasons. But the Bears realized that their Plan A for getting good - grabbing productive players in the draft - wasn't working out. They blow virtually every high draft pick, and haven't hit on as many sleepers late in the draft as they did during the first couple years of the Lovie-Angelo Era. Their plan was broke. But, to the Bears' credit, they switched up their game plan. Maybe they recognized their own faults.

Hey, if we can't draft and develop our own talent, let's throw unreasonable amounts of money at other teams'.

You're right that it's so easy to be cynical, but what's the point? As fans, isn't this what we want? Fans of the 31 other teams all wish it was their coach flying to Charlotte to meet with Julius Peppers at midnight. The Bears actually did it.

Assuming this deal indeed does goes through, might it blow up in the Bears' face? Sure. But remember the NFL isn't the NBA: these contracts aren't guaranteed. When the Bulls sign Luol Deng to a $72 million contract, they actually have to pay him $72 million. That's not the way it works in the NFL. The Bears can cut Peppers whenever they want. They'll have to take a cap hit, sure, but from a team's perspective, it's an infinitely better system.

Another way to look at this: If I said you could have any defensive end in the league on your team for next season, who would you take? I bet Peppers is the answer for a lot of people, and probably in the top five for everyone. So maybe we can view this deal like the Cubs' signing of Alfonso Soriano: it might not look great in the future, but if the team wins a championship, who cares? Of course baseball contracts are guaranteed, so the Bears come out better regardless. But the point is that the Bears are actively going for a Super Bowl. Things like "winning a negotiation" can be damned.

Other things to chew on: are the Bears the new Redskins? Is Jerry Angelo the new Kenny Williams? What are the chances Peppers signs with someone else? What if he signs with the Patriots, who reportedly also have an offer on the table.

Either way, I'm hoping Peppers gets done soon. I need this to be 100 percent before I can get too excited.

BOBBY: Yeah, you're right, this is fuckin' cool.

A handful of other random thoughts I've had throughout this morning...

Does Peppers think the Bears defense is still good/dominant?: He can't possibly think that, can he? This has to be all about the money.

Going back to his college days at UNC, Peppers has never played outside of the Carolinas before: Not saying that's a good or bad thing... just sayin'.

Mike Lombardi, one of the better talent evaluating journalists wrote this about the Peppers signing:

Free agency started and the Bears appear to be the 2010 version of the Washington Redskins. With no first or second-round pick, the Bears need free agency to get their team competitive with two playoff teams, the Packers and the Vikings, in their own division. With Peppers, the Bears now have a legitimate left end that can rush the passer and create problems in their opponents' protections. But he is not a one-man show as the Bears will need the rest of their defensive line to play well.

Many teams were willing to look at Peppers, but once the money went north of $10 million per year, some teams dropped out. The Bears were never dropping out and they were committed to make this work, in spite of the rising cost of the contract

Lovie/Player's Coach effect: I've read a million things about this Peppers courting already, but someone, somewhere brought up a good point about Peppers inclination to like Lovie because he's a player's coach. It'd be interesting to see how big of a factor it truly was.

Treat Peppers like a draft pick: One of the things that helped my outlook on the Cutler trade was pretending we got him in the draft as opposed to a trade. It's interesting perspective. Like, if the Bears had a Top 3 pick, they'd probably end up with Suh or Gerald McCoy. Both defensive lineman have enormous potential, but both would be unproven rookies. And they'd be getting a ton of money without ever have playing a down of NFL football. Peppers is where that rookie money would have been going. And success or fail, at least he's done it before. If he doesn't pan out, it's not because he wasn't polished.

The Bears are giving me an odd, CFB vibe: Everyone knows college football sucks, but it's been kind of fun to see the Bears operate like a college team. They're not free agent spending, they're recruiting. Lovie on a plane? Nuts. It's also cool to see them getting guys to maximize the strengths of Martz' system (blocking tight ends, pass catching running backs). It'll be interesting to see how this team takes shape over next couple of days. Hopefully they don't trade Olsen.

It's 11:41 a.m. as I write this, and while the signing's not official, it seems imminent. However this plays out, the Bears are going to be in a very interesting spot.

BobbyStompy is the assistant editor of Tremendous Upside Potential. He can be reached at stompaberdeen [at] aol.com. Follow him on Twitter @bobbystompy.

Reflections on a Long Term Panda

2010-03-05T16:25:10Z

Quick note about yesterday's game vs. the Brewers: I guess vegetarians can be clueless a-holes, too.

Onward.

Tim Lincecum's back-to-back Cy Youngs and arbitration case this winter spurred a lot of talk about long-term contracts for young players. What about Pablo Sandoval?

Unless his brief stint in 2008 (145 PAs, a month and a half on the big-league roster) vaults him into Super-Two status, Panda will be eligible for arbitration after the 2011 season. Do the Giants want to go year by year with him, or will they look soon to lock him up? The question with Sandoval is not his bat, it's his body. My guess is they'll wait at least another few months to see how he responds to the "Operation Panda" off-season training regimen (not to be confused with "panda operation"), though by all reports this spring he's not looking much leaner than before.

It's worth a quick review of the Giants' payroll obligations through 2014. Note that 2012 is going to be a crusher with Zito and Rowand still on the books, Lincecum due a raise from his $14 M salary in 2011, Wilson and J. Sanchez in their final arb years, and Cain perhaps testing the free-agent market.

For the sake of argument let's say the Giants wait until the next off-season to go long-term with Sandoval. At that point, Pablo will have another year under the team's total control, three years of arbitration, then free agency. This is where the spectacular Justin Upton sits, and he just signed a six-year, $51 M deal with Arizona that goes through two free agent years. Upton's deal breaks down this way: $1.25 M in 2010, $5.25 M in '11, $8 M in '12, $10.5 M in '13, and $13.2 M in '14 and '15 each. Discussing Upton, Joe Pawlikowski of Fangraphs.com offers more comps:

For comparison, Ryan Braun will earn $4, $6, and $8.5 million for his arbitration years, followed by $10 and $12 million for his first two free agent years. Hanley Ramirez's deal paid him $5.5 for his first arbitration year and will pay him $7 million for the second this year. In the third he'll make $11 million, followed by $15, $15.5, and $16 million in free agent equivalent salaries.

The most comparable [to Upton] could be David Wright, who earned $1 million in his final reserve clause season, followed by arbitration salaries of $5, $7.5, and $10 million. The Mets then have his first two free agency years at $14 and $15 million, with a $16 million club option for a third.

If Panda repeats or improves his 2009 season this year he'll be in the discussion for something similar. On offense, he's proving to be more or less the equal of Longoria and Upton (measured by wOBA). Swap out Upton for Braun, and it's a similar picture.

On defense, however, Sandoval lags behind. Longoria outshines him (and nearly everyone else) with the glove at the hot corner, and Upton in RF is good and getting better. Sandoval was merely adequate at third last year, and he's a prime candidate to move across to first base in the next couple years.

If Longoria is the ne plus ultra of young elite talent trading arbitration dollars for long-term security, Ryan Braun might be the low end of the group. Braun's defense at 3B was bad enough to merit a move to LF after one year. (And he hasn't been good in the outfield, either.)

Sandoval's D hasn't sunk to Braun's level, but if he can't keep the weight off, wear and tear will take its toll and he won't be among the truly elite young players who excel at all phases of the game. Nor will the Giants be willing to pay him as one.

Stumbling Out Of The Gate

2010-03-05T12:56:15Z

Well, that wasn't the way Cardinal fans wanted to see things get started.

OK, let's put in the usual disclaimers. It was a spring training game. Most of the regulars weren't in there, and you can't take a lot away from one game, especially the first of the year. So I'm not drawing any conclusions from this game, just to make that perfectly clear.

About the only thing you might be able to take out of that contest is that Charlie Zink isn't going to be going north with the team, but we knew that already. Francisco Samuel didn't look all that good either, though I believe command's been an issue with him in the past. Nice to see Adam Ottovino have a decent game, though his command apparently wasn't all there either.

Out of those that actually are going to be on the 2010 Cardinals, Ryan Ludwick gave some positive signs, with a double and a home run. It took a while last year for him to get going, so perhaps working with Mark McGwire (who noticed a mechanical issue early in camp) has had some results already.

It was surprising to see the defense be so shaky. Again, there were a lot of people in that game that won't even sniff St. Louis and conditions in Florida are notoriously tough at times, but you still hate to see Colby Rasmus lose the first ball hit to him in the sun.

On the battle front, Joe Mather chipped in two hits, which has to help his standing somewhat. He was charged with an error, though it doesn't sound like it was entirely his fault (couldn't catch a throw by Rasmus, which may have been him, Rasmus, or the wind). It's early, but I think Tony LaRussa has Mather mentally penciled in for the bench, with the possibility of Mather playing his way out of it. So far, that's not happening.

Today the Cards face the Mets again, this time at home, and start Brad Penny. Many of us here in Cardinal Nation have been very interested to see Penny in a competitive game. The big bats will be in the lineup for the Cardinals today, as Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina make their debuts. With more of a regular look to the lineup, hopefully it will be a more professional game, at least until the subs come in.

Before I wrap this up, I wanted to comment on the GM rankings put out by Sports Illustrated. John Mozeliak was ranked 18th. To which I say, really?

It seems to me that the rankings were a bit of a hodgepodge. You've got Andrew Friedman of the Rays on top. I can go with that. Built up a young team, developed them into a contender. Sure.

Then you've got Theo Epstein of the BoSox. Again, solid pick. Even though he's got a budget that can absorb a lot of things (and again, thanks for Julio Lugo and John Smoltz, guys!), they have done a good job of making the smart moves.

Third you have Brian Cashman. Wow, the top three GMs just happen to be in the AL East. Hmm, shocking. Cashman is a fine GM, don't get me wrong, but he also presides over a payroll that is roughly $200 million. How much of a true test is that?

Then you have the Marlins' GM, which makes some sense, I guess, in that they've also made a couple of trades, built a farm system, and have been competitive at least.

So, even if you disagree, it's about results with the top four. Results would seem to be the best way to go about measuring something like this, so that's fine. I think I'd have done a little differently, but sure, that's our measuring stick.

So at number five we have....Jack Zduriencik? The Seattle GM was the darling of the offseason, it's true, but have we seen any results out of that yet? It seems like he's getting ranked up here solely by reputation of his "baseball mind" instead of what he's been able to produce. His offseason looked good, but this isn't a ranking of offseasons.

Jon Daniels at 8? Yeah, Texas has some young guys coming up, but do you remember Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton? That trade alone has to knock you down into the latter half. There's not necessarily been a lot of return from that Mark Teixeira trade either.

Then they put our old friend Walt Jocketty 14th, while saying it's tough to know how good of a GM he was since Albert Pujols, TLR and Dave Duncan were on the squad. Seriously? You are going there? Because it's darn tough to see how good Brian Cashman is when he's signed huge free agents and been able to put an All-Star at every position.

All that to say that I believe Mozeliak is woefully underrated on this list. In less than three years on the job, he's moved a third baseman everyone knew he had to trade and got back quality in return, moved an outfielder and made a smart decision on which minor leaguer to get back, pulled the trade for the most coveted bat on the market and then played hardball to get him signed, gotten freebies from overstuffed payrolls (again, thanks Boston!) that have turned out extremely well.

There's not much that Mo's done in his tenure that has blown up in his face, which is more than a lot of guys ahead of him on that list can say. Honestly, Mo has to be in the top 10, I think, and possibly knocking on the door of the top five. If he can keep Albert in St. Louis, though, we'll all rank him #1 in our hearts!

Playing Pepper 2010: Minnesota Twins

2010-03-05T04:18:13Z

Last year before the season began, I posed five questions to a blogger for each team, so as to get to know the rest of baseball. I focus so heavily on the Cardinals that sometimes the rest of MLB can pass me by. That went very well, so much so that it spawned not only a postseason edition but was part of the impetus for the formation of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

So this year, I've brought Playing Pepper back, with a little bit of a twist. Instead of five questions, I posed 10 questions, and this year every team got the same set. Plus, tapping into those BBA connections, I sent them to every blogger representing that team in the BBA.

We'll try to do two a day in a general alphabetical order, but things may change depending on responses.

Minnesota Twins
2009 Finish: 87-76, first in AL Central, lost in ALDS

The Twins captured America's imagination at the end of the season last year, making an amazing run to wind up tied with the Tigers on the last day, then playing an epic Game 163 to advance. Unfortunately, that was all they could manage, closing the Metrodome on a losing note.

A new season, a new stadium, and a new hope pervades the land of a thousand lakes. To take us through the upcoming season, we've got Parker from Over The Baggy, Seth from Seth Speaks and Andrew from Twins Target.

]]> C70: How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it?

OTB: Trading for a young starting shortstop (Hardy), retaining a solid pitcher who threw nearly 200 quality innings last year (Pavano), a solidifying the bench with a good yet aging pinch/designated hitter option (Thome) and finding a legitimate number two hitter (Hudson), its easy to see that the Twins assessed all their offseason needs and addressed them properly and beyond most fans expectations. I have to give it an A.

SS: The Twins 2009/2010 offseason was like non-other. They spent a lot of money. They acquired some very good pieces to supplement an already strong team. They brought in JJ Hardy, Clay Condrey, Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson, who should all contribute mightily. The one final bit of business that needs to be done yet, that would make it an A-offseason, is getting Joe Mauer locked up long-term.

TT: For the Twins, the 2009 offseason was one of the best in recent history. After the (unfortunate) early exit from the postseason to end the 2009 season, the Twins had several clear and pressing needs. The most notable and obvious of which was Minnesota's virtually empty infield, with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau the only clear starters. Two of the 2B/SS/3B hole would need to be filled, with Nick Punto most probably filling the third.

Just days after the conclusion of the World Series, Twins' general manager Bill Smith dealt from a position of excess (Carlos Gomez, CF) for one of need (JJ Hardy, SS) in a straight swap with the Milwaukee Brewers. While Gomez is an excellent defensive center fielder, and his presence will be missed by a rotation that is very prone to the fly ball, the Twins feel they can provide Hardy with the atmosphere and coaching he needs to return to his elite 2007/2008 status.

The next significant moves were reaching a deal with Carl Pavano, trading Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for Chris Province, and signing relief pitcher Clay Condrey, who figures to play a minor, but significant, role in the 2010 bullpen. Jim Thome was then signed to a very inexpensive one-year contract. He provides some insurance for both Morneau at first base and any one of the corner outfield positions, as current DH Jason Kubel would play defense should there be an injury with Thome sliding into the full-time DH slot. Right now, though, Thome figures to provide legitimate power off the bench and will receive plenty of late-inning at bats.

The Twins then shocked their fanbase by signing Orlando Hudson, who fills the second base hole, but perhaps more importantly, gives the Twins a No. 2 hitter to bat before Joe Mauer. Were it not for Hudson, either Hardy or Punto (!) would have batted second.

As a whole, the offseason was incredibly fulfilling for Twins' fans. Thanks to the revenues brought in from Target Field, the Twins' payroll is nearing the $100 million mark, which up until this point has been unheard of in Minnesota. The Twins addressed two infield needs, greatly solidified their bench, and strengthened their rotation as well as, to a lesser degree, their bullpen. The Twins' offseason was a perfect case study in a wise allocation of resources, and giving them anything less than an "A" would be inaccurate.

C70: What is the key to success for 2010?

OTB: Pitching will be the equalizer as it always is. This season, the Twins have more depth in the rotation then they have had in recent memory yet they seem to have concerns as well. Three-fifths of the rotation is littered in question marks: Pavano is a platinum member of the frequently injured club, Slowey has work done on his wrist and Liriano's struggled in '09 but has had a very strong winter ball showing. What plays into the Twins's favor is that they can turn to pitchers that have MLB experience in Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak or Jeff Manship within the minor leagues if injuries do crop up.

SS: Starting pitching - It's easy to say, but the Twins need their starters to pitch well and keep them in gains. They need to all progress and stay healthy.

TT: As is the case with all other teams, health is the first key to success. The close second, though, would be the effectiveness of the starting rotation. The Twins lack a clear ace, although they have no fewer than three very capable No. 2 or No. 3 starters along with a plethora of No. 5 options.

Scott Baker has been named the Opening Day starter, with Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and most probably Francisco Liriano rounding up the rotation. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak will both be waiting in the wings, however, should anyone struggle.

Minnesota shouldn't have a problem scoring runs, but the key to a successful season will be the starting rotation.

C70: What will be the team's strength?

OTB: Offensively, this team is built well from top to bottom. With Denard Span, Orlando Hudson, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau assuming the first four positions in the batting order, this year's model is stacked upfront. Behind them, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, JJ Hardy and Delmon Young are all very capable of hitting 20 home runs each. I think it is safe to project that this Twins team will be scoring a lot.

SS: A lineup that starts out with Denard Span, Orlando Hudson, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, JJ Hardy and Delmon Young. This team should be able to score some runs!

TT: The team's ability to score runs will be their strength. A lineup of Span/Hudson/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer/Hardy/Young/Punto has the potential to do some real damage to opposing pitchers. The addition of Hudson not only provides the Twins with a legitimate No. 2 hitter, but it breaks up their long run of left-handed hitters. With a relatively diversified lineup and at least four batters with the ability to hit 30 home runs (five if you include Hardy), Minnesota shouldn't have trouble driving runs across the plate.

C70: What could be their Achilles' heel?

OTB: Outdoor baseball and the outfield defense.

In moving to Target Field, the Twins have forfeited their Dome Field Advantage. Some, like the White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, believed that the turf, roof and noise factor helped the Twins steal a few more victories away from opponents. While I do not doubt that the Dome's quirks helped the Twins (one does not have to look any further than Game 163 for examples of that), I suspect that we will not see any substantial drop off in the team's home record as they transition outside.

The Twins' pitchers were largest purveyors of fly balls in baseball last year. This trend does not appear to be slow down in '10. With Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and a sprinkling of Jason Kubel figuring to assume the bulk of the corner outfield duties, the Twins have some of the least rangiest personnel. Without Carlos Gomez, who was a hardcore flytrapper, the Twins might see a higher frequency of those flyballs turning into gappers that may have otherwise found leather if Denard Span and Gomez were patrolling the grounds.

SS: It is really difficult to find one. Of course, if someone takes a step backward, that will hurt, but the Twins have a strong lineup, a solid starting staff and a deep bullpen.

TT: Health has been a concern for the Twins, and several of their crucial players could go down with an injury on any given day. Mauer missed the first month of 2009 with a back injury, and Morneau missed the last portion of the season with a back injury, as well. Cuddyer has suffered from quite a few bad-luck injuries, while Kubel's knees have always been a concern. Slowey and reliever Pat Neshek are returning from injury, and both Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano have "iffy" health.

If everyone remains healthy, the Twins could be a dangerous team. If poor health takes its toll, though, the Twins' season could be over very quickly.

C70: Who will be the team's MVP?

OTB: Any reasonable person would say Joe Mauer. I am one such reasonable person. Like St Louis who instinctively would say Albert Pujols, Mauer has reached that pantheon.

SS: Joe Mauer. In the non-Mauer category, how about '06 MVP Justin Morneau? But I will say that Denard Span's value at the top of the order should not be underestimated at all.

TT: I don't think there is much doubt the best statistical performance will come from Joe Mauer, but the Minnesota catcher could very well win "MVP" honors, as well. Denard Span could be another candidate if he is able to remain healthy out in center field for the entire season, as Minnesota doesn't have an adequate back-up.

C70: Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

OTB: The Twins have positioned themselves well with a team full of experience and veterans. There should not be too much of a need for rookies on this year's club however third base prospect Danny Valencia might be a contributor down the season's stretch run after some additional incubating in AAA Rochester.

SS: The Twins will not have to rely on any rookies in 2010, but they have a few that coud contribute if and when called upon. Danny Valencia could be the team's 3B by June. Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney are most likely to contribute out of the bullpen at some point.

TT: There won't be too many rookies on the team in 2010, but it is almost certain that third baseman Danny Valencia will be called up at some point. Depending on how he looks in Spring Training, he could make his debut on Opening Day or as late as July. Valencia provides average defense at the Hot Corner, while his bat is solid and very capable of consistently putting up a .280/.330/.440 with around 15 home runs a season. He may not be able to reach this level in his first year, though.

C70: Who will be the breakout player for the team?

OTB: For me, I think it will be Delmon Young. With his late-season hitting spree at the conclusion of '09, I noted that Young had changed his mechanics at the plate that allowed him to drive the ball more and elevate (two very necessary prerequisites to hitting home runs). I do keep this enthusiasm curbed since Young has seen his numbers skew northward now at the end of the past two seasons, however, I think with this physical change, we might actually be witnessing progression from a player that once apparent unable to progress. Even still, his sheer disregard for plate discipline will always leave him susceptible to the occasional slump.

SS: This is the year that Delmon Young will take that big step forward that we all thought that he could. He's down about 30 pounds. He's committed. He's incredibly talented. This is a huge year for Young and I think he will come through.

TT: Hopefully Francisco Liriano. The young lefty looked fantastic in Winter Ball in the Dominican Republic, where he was able to throw his deadly slider without restraint. Should the Twins' pitching staff insist that he throw his pitches with less aggression, though, there is little doubt that Liriano's career in Minnesota would be nearing an end.

While Liriano may not be able to return to his 2006 form, he is very capable of emerging as the ace of the Minnesota rotation. He is just as likely, though, to throw way too many fastballs and get shelled out of Minnesota.

C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

OTB: Joe Mauer. Yeah, that's a difficult pill to swallow but I see signs in his '09 numbers that might deflate in '10. The first of which corresponds to his home run totals. According to hittrackeronline.com's database, 11 of Mauer's 28 home runs were categorized as "Just Enough". These were the wall-scrapping home runs that Mauer lifted into the left field porch on a regular basis. What makes this a likely candidate for regression is that hittrackeronline.com shows that, on average, 30% of home runs are of the "Just Enough" variety while Mauer's 2009 "Just Enough" totals were 40% of his. As this total equalizes, I expect to see more of the ricocheting off the wall and dying on the warning track in 2010.

SS: Joe Mauer? I mean, the numbers he put up in 2009 were amazing, so anything less would be a drop off. I don't expect a big drop off. If I had to pick someone, it might be Nick Blackburn.

TT: In terms of statistical points, probably Joe Mauer. Though it pains me to say, there is little doubt that Mauer will be unable to repeat last year's ridiculous numbers (.365/.444/.587), but he will still be one of the best offensive catchers in the league (My guess? .340/.420/.530). On a non-superstar scale, though, Brian Duensing will probably take a large step back. In 84 innings last season, the rookie posted a 3.64 ERA. I doubt he can do that again.

C70: Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

OTB: If the Twins find themselves in need of a contributor at the deadline, there are several options to move. Second baseman Alexi Casilla is an option as is left-handed starter Glen Perkins. The Twins have excess pitching in the minor league system so that could be a tapped resource as well.

SS: Wilson Ramos, the Twins immensely talented catcher prospect could be starting for many big league teams already. Teams will ask for him.

TT: Joe Nathan or Michael Cuddyer could fill these roles, but any trades the Twins make will probably involve a few of their talented minor-league players. Catcher Wilson Ramos is obviously blocked from the majors for the time being (and hopefully for the next 7-8 years, assuming Mauer is re-signed soon), and there is no room for all of Ben Revere/Aaron Hicks/Angel Morales/Joe Benson/Rene Tosoni in the outfield.

A few of them will earn the title of "bust," there is no reason why a few couldn't be traded at the deadline for a rental pitcher along the lines of Brandon Webb.

C70: What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

OTB: 92-70, first in the AL Central.

SS: 92-70, 1st place in the AL Central.

TT: I haven't done any real projections lately, but I would say the Twins will have a final record of 90-72 and finish first in the AL Central. They will defeat their ALDS opponent in five games, but fall in the ALCS in five games.

My thanks to all of these guys for taking the time out to answer the questions. Interestingly, after it only happening once in history, two of the last four champs have christened new ballparks with World Series titles. Can Minnesota turn the hat trick?